Outlook, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

932
FXUS65 KGGW 092059
AFDGGW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
259 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Among the mild haze of wildfire smoke in the region, high
  pressure and daily hot temperatures will prevail through
  Wednesday.
- A storm system from the Pacific will clear away the smoke and
  sustain multiple rounds of accumulating rain showers and
  thunderstorms this weekend across our region.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Most shower and thunderstorm activity today will be confined to
areas west of US-191, as the ridge of high pressure still holds
sway over eastern Montana. The approaching low pressure system
from the west, will slowly move eastward from Oregon through
Idaho over the next several days, and gradually expand the area of
convective activity for our region later this week and into this
weekend, which will also result in cooler temperatures.
Portions of northeast Montana will be in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall each day from at least Thursday through Friday.
Details are still a bit unclear, but 0.25 to 0.50 rainfall
accumulations looks possible for many locations.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Deviated from the NBM with more detailed hi-resolution model data
for precip chances and winds for Days 1-2.
For later this week, high confidence in a wet and more active
weather pattern for us locally, but average to below-average
confidence for exact timing and amounts of rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATE: 2055Z, 9/9
PATTERN: High pressure in place over eastern Montana keeps calm
conditions in place for NE MT TAF sites during this TAF cycle.
Weather pattern change later this week, brings multiple rounds of
rainfall.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR
WINDS: This afternoon/evening from the ESE around 8 to 12 kts.
Wednesday from the SE around 15 kts with a few stronger gusts.
&&
.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow

NWS GGW Office Area Forecast Discussion