Otter Rock, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

966
FXUS66 KPQR 252041
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
141 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Conditions will be dry and mild through Sunday, with the
warmest temperatures expected on Saturday. A Pacific frontal system
will bring widespread rain to the area Sunday night into Monday.
Conditions remain cool and showery thereafter as additional frontal
systems move inland. Breezy south winds are expected Wednesday,
however uncertainty is high for exact wind speeds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday...Dry and mild conditions are
expected through at least Sunday afternoon/evening as surface high
pressure and zonal flow aloft remains in place. Friday, Saturday and
Sunday will feature seasonable temperatures with highs in the 70s
over inland valleys, except around 80 degrees on Saturday. The coast
will remain relatively cooler with highs in the 60s each day. Aside
from occasional high clouds Thursday evening and again on Saturday
and Sunday, expect mostly clear skies to continue.
Will note Thursday night is still shaping up to be the coldest night
of the week as clear skies and calm winds set the stage for
radiational cooling. Most locations will drop into the mid to upper
40s, except around 40 degrees in the Upper Hood River Valley. Still
not expecting frost formation in the Upper Hood River Valley or
central Columbia River Gorge despite the colder temperatures, as
these areas will be the only zones within the forecast area that will
see some wind during the overnight hours, sustained out of the west
around 5-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. This will limit how cold
temperatures can get and should be more than enough to prevent frost
from developing early Friday morning. -TK
.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Wednesday night...Not much change
to the long term forecast with today`s update, which remains
highlighted by a cool and wet fall-like weather pattern. The next
round of rain to move into the area is expected to arrive Sunday
night into Monday morning, beginning at the coast first and at the
Cascades last. This round of rain will be in response to an incoming
Pacific cold front, bringing increasing moisture and forcing to
western WA/OR. Models and their ensembles suggest this front will be
slow-moving, helping increasing confidence that Sunday should stay
dry during daylight hours, at least for inland areas away from the
coast. With plenty of rain and cloud cover around on Monday,
temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the 60s both inland at
the coast. This trend continues Tuesday through Wednesday as
additional frontal systems move inland from the south or southwest,
bringing additional rounds of beneficial rain to the area.
Not expecting any noteworthy impacts with these frontal systems. The
one potential exception is wind, which does look to increase on
Wednesday out of the south. That said, confidence is very low
regarding exact wind speeds, as the outcome will be highly dependent
on the evolution of a mesoscale surface low and the proximity of this
low to the coast. Most ensemble guidance shows a weak low with winds
gusting up to 20-25 mph, which would cause little to no impacts.
However, a small subset of guidance shows a stronger and more compact
low moving towards the coast, resulting in more significant wind
gusts upwards of 40-45 mph. With leaves still on trees, wind speeds
of this magnitude would be enough to cause some tree damage. That
said, the probability for wind gusts of 40-45 mph or stronger is only
around 1-10%, except 20-25% at the coast. -TK
&&
.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft turns northwesterly this evening
as a weak upper trough moves over the region. This will bring high
clouds across the area today, with prevailing VFR conditions
through tonight. Onshore flow will continue with north to
northwest winds, generally 10 kt or less through the Willamette
Valley, and breezy at the coast with gusts up to 20 kt.
High pressure builds back over the region later tonight, with
marine stratus likely pushing onshore across the northern coast by
10z Friday. There is around a 50% chance that CIGs fall to MVFR at
KAST. There is also around a 20-40% chance that MVFR stratus
pushing up the lower Columbia reaches the Portland metro between
12-18z Friday morning.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...High confidence of VFR through at least 12z
Friday. Scattered to broken high clouds are expected to pass over
the area today. Then, around a 30% chance of MVFR stratus at the
terminal between 12-18z Friday. Northwest winds expected 10 kt or
less through this evening. /DH
&&
.MARINE...High pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the
southern Oregon/northern California coast will maintain breezy
north winds through this afternoon, mainly across the inner
coastal waters south of Lincoln City. Isolated gusts to 25 kt will
give way to easing conditions later this evening and overnight as
winds fall below 10 kt into Friday morning. A frontal system
approaching Vancouver Island will bring southerly winds to our
northern coastal waters through Friday afternoon, while weak
surface high pressure lingers over the coastal waters through
Saturday.
Seas subside to around 4 to 5 ft tonight into Friday morning, but
are expected to build again through Friday night as a mid-period
northwesterly swell pushes through the waters. Seas increase to
around 8 to 9 ft at 14-15 seconds by Friday afternoon/evening,
potentially reaching 10 ft on Saturday.
There is increasing confidence that a frontal system will approach
the waters on Sunday with increasing southerly winds through
Sunday night. Guidance suggests there is around a 30% chance of
gale force wind gusts exceeding 34 kt before the cold front pushes
inland Monday morning. Active weather appears likely to continue
into at least the middle of next week. /Hartsock
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/portland
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NWS PQR Office Area Forecast Discussion