Ophelia, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

239
FXUS61 KAKQ 251439
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1039 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid conditions continue today as high pressure
remains offshore. A slow moving cold front moves into the area
tonight and Friday, with an upper trough settling over the
Southeast by the weekend. This will bring more unsettled
conditions late this week through the weekend. Impacts from any
tropical development would be Monday into Tuesday if they occur.
However, uncertainity remains high regarding this.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1035 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
- Very warm and rather humid today with late afternoon and
  evening showers and thunderstorms.
A deep, positively tilted upper trough remains centered to our
west with an upper low over the Great Lakes. Upper ridging
continues to be anchored offshore. Deep layered SW flow
prevails across the Mid- Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure
is centered offshore, with a wavy cold front from southern Ohio
to western PA. We`re still seeing thick cloud cover across the
Piedmont with a few lingering light showers late this morning,
while it has warmed to ~80F closer to the coast where skies are
mostly sunny.
Very warm and rather humid for late September today. High
temperatures range from the lower-mid 80s NW where more cloud
cover is expected, to the upper 80s/around 90F SE. The wind will
mainly be SW 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to ~20 mph. The
upper low over the Great Lakes digs to the Southeast by tonight
as the ridge remains anchored offshore. Showers/tstms are
progged to develop along the higher terrain to our W/NW this
aftn, but not sure how much of this can make it to the Piedmont
given the lack of destabilization thanks to the persistent
cloud cover. Still, will keep 30-50% PoPs for our
central/western zones (and the MD Eastern Shore) from late this
afternoon into this evening. The 500mb flow increases to nearly
50kt ahead of the upper trough and this will result in 35-40kt
of 0-6km bulk shear. However, 500mb height falls are negligible
through this evening as the ridge holds strong offshore. Also,
mid-level lapse rates are paltry given persistent mid and high
clouds, so this should yield weaker updrafts. Therefore, the
severe risk remains in the marginal category, with the main
threat being damaging wind gusts with a deep well mixed BL if we
can get enough sfc heating. Could actually see some additional
development over SE VA later this evening (9-11 PM) as heights
finally start to fall coupled with some degree of lingering mixed-
layer instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). Thunder chances
gradually fall overnight but showers will likely linger into
early Fri AM as the surface boundary settles in from the NW.
Warm and humid tonight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- An upper low southwest of the region will bring showers, a few
  embedded thunderstorms, and locally heavy rain Friday into the
  first half of the weekend.
The northern stream wave ejects E across New England Friday as
the southern stream wave becomes a closed low over the Mid-
South. Meanwhile, the surface boundary settles over central and
southern VA. Lesser coverage of showers is expected early Friday
with the diurnal cycle, with redevelopment expected, especially
over southern/SE VA and NE NC Friday. PW values are expected to
be 150-180% of normal (1.8 to nearly 2.0") Friday and locally
heavy rain and some embedded tstms are possible, especially in
close proximity to the surface boundary. The upper trough
remains over the East Coast Friday night into Saturday as the
closed upper low lingers over the Southeast CONUS. Both the
00z/25 EPS and GEFS continue to depict anomalous moisture, with
the EPS showing PW anomalies of 180- 190% of normal by
Saturday/Saturday night with the GEFS 160-180%. The EPS
continues to show higher QPF than the GEFS, but regardless the
pattern continues to support the potential for heavy rain from
persistent showers, and a few embedded tstms also possible
Saturday afternoon. Total QPF through 12z Sunday is forecast to
be 1-2", with locally higher amounts. Not quite as warm Friday
with highs in the lower to mid 80s, with mid to upper 70s
Saturday. Lows Friday night and Saturday night will mainly be in
the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- A unsettled pattern continues late this weekend into early
  next week.
- Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to become a major
  hurricane well offshore and AL94 has a 50% chance of
  development through 48 hours and 80% through 7 days.
The closed low will remain over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast
Sunday into early next week as strong high pressure builds SE
across Ontario and Quebec. Further complications arise from AL94
and TS Humberto (forecast to become a major hurricane by late
Sunday), how these systems interact with each other, and how
much the trough interacts with AL94. At this time, forecast
guidance has a very large spread with AL94, but there is enough
guidance showing some impact or flirtation with the SE US coast
that this system needs to be monitored. Regardless, unsettled
conditions and rain chances continue early next week, with
increasing onshore flow as the strong high builds SE from
Canada. High temperatures will primarily be in the 70s with lows
in the 60s. Long term ensemble guidance does show the high
eventually building into the region mid-late next week with
cooler and drier air.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Thursday...
High pressure is centered offshore as of 11z with low pressure
and a wavy cold front well NW of the region. VFR under BKN-OVC
mid and high clouds inland and SCT closer to the coast. However,
there is an area of stratus that may briefly affect ECG, ORF,
and PHF through 13z. The wind is light out of the SSW. Rain
showers and a few embedded tstms should pass W of RIC through
13z. VFR conditions should prevail by later this morning.
Showers/tstms are expected to develop later this aftn (generally
after 20z) and linger into the evening. There is also a low
probability of a few stronger tstms. PROB30 groups have been
maintained for RIC and SBY, and have been added for ORF and PHF
later this evening. Some lingering showers are possible later
tonight, with some IFR/MVFR cigs possible late tonight and
toward 12z Friday. A SSW wind will increase to 10-15kt later
this morning with occasional gusts to 20kt this aftn, before
diminishing to 5-10kt tonight.
A cold front slowly settles into the region Friday. Showers are
likely with a few tstms possible across SE VA/NE NC Friday
aftn/evening, with showers again likely Saturday. Occasional
sub-VFR conditions are expected. A chc of showers lingers into
Sunday and Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Another chance of marginal SCA conditions return this
  afternoon into Friday morning primarily for the ocean north of
  Cape Charles.
- Sub-SCA from Friday through the weekend with unsettled marine
  conditions likely from the early to middle part of next week.
- Moderate Rip Risk continues for all beaches today.
Early morning weather analysis shows a high pressure off the
east coast and a broad low pressure over central Kentucky. The
pressure gradient from these two systems have weakened allowing
winds to be around 10 kt out of the SSE with some gusts around
15kt. Waves this morning remain around 3 ft across the ocean and
1 to 2 ft across the bay. Through the rest of the morning and
into the tonight the low over Kentucky is expected to track NE
and deepen. As this low deepens the pressure gradient from the
high and low will tighten allowing winds to increase across the
waters. Winds will increase out of the SSE by this afternoon to
10 to 15 kt with gusts nearing 20kt across the bay. While across
the ocean winds will be between 15 to 20 kt with some gusts
nearing 25 kt between 6pm and midnight tonight. Waves build
around 4ft this afternoon across the ocean with the possibility
of 5 ft primarily north of Cape Charles and remain between 1 to
2 ft across the bay. At this time no SCA have been issued for
the VA/MD coastal waters. This is due to the brief period of the
possible 25kt wind gusts, southerly winds tend to under
perform, and seas may not build to 5ft. However, this still does
not mean marine conditions will not be rough. By Friday, a
frontal passage will stall over our local waters leading to
weaker winds with low confidence in wind direction. High
pressure builds in during the weekend bringing benign marine
conditions across all waters. Unsettled marine conditions are
likely from early-mid next week as Canadian high pressure slowly
builds SE from the Great Lakes and a tropical system
potentially forms to our south and tracks toward the waters.
There is a large amount of uncertainty with respect to the track
and strength of any tropical system that does develop.
Regardless of any tropical development, a period of elevated NE
winds appears possible from the early to middle part of next
week.
A Moderate rip risk remains in place for today, dropping to low
on Friday. A low to moderate rip risk is expected this weekend,
with a high rip current risk likely for much of next week due
to swell from any offshore system.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI/HET

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion