Olton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

915
FXUS64 KLUB 012318
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
618 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the
   weekend, with highs at least 10 degrees above seasonal
   normals.
- A pattern change is possible early next week, which may bring
   slight cooler weather and increased rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Warm, above-normal temperatures will continue today as the Texas
panhandle remains entrenched on the northeast periphery of a ~590
dam mid-level ridge and attendant low-level thermal ridge (e.g.,
850 mb temperatures at 22 to 26 deg C). These forecast 850 mb
temperatures are higher than yesterday afternoon. As a result,
high temperatures will be a few degrees higher--generally in the
upper 80s to mid 90s deg F. These temperatures are ~10 deg F
above-normal for early October.
Otherwise, winds will remain light with a weak surface trough
located on the transition zone between the Cap Rock and the Low
Rolling Plains. This will result in veered winds across the High
Plains and more southerly winds across the Low Rolling Plains.
Cumulus clouds are expected to develop in close proximity of this
trough axis. A few high-based showers are possible; however, given
the dry sub-cloud layer, most precipitation should evaporate
before reaching the surface. Can`t rule out some sprinkles--but
any impacts should be minimal.
The aforementioned mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen,
expand, and shift to the northeast on Thursday. The sensible
weather impact will be slightly warmer weather on Thursday
afternoon with nearly all locations expected to be in the 90s deg
F.
Mahale/OUN
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The synoptic-scale pattern will transition to southwest flow
across the western U.S. toward the latter half of the week into
the upcoming weekend. However, any associated troughs are expected
to lift northeastward into the northern Plains. This will keep the
Texas panhandle in continued warm, above-average temperatures with
dry conditions. High temperatures will generally remain in the
mid 80s to low 90s deg F. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis and
attendant lee trough will result in increasing southerly winds--
especially by Saturday.
Toward the middle part of next week, there is the potential for a
pattern change with quasi-zonal flow forecast to develop across
the Central and Northern Plains. As a result, the mid-level ridge
will flatten/de-amplify across the Southern Plains. The flatter
mid-level ridge may allow a cold front to advance southward into
the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday; however, there is uncertainty
how far south the cold front will advance and the attendant
magnitude of cold air edification into the Texas panhandle. For
now, the temperature forecast will trend lower by next week with a
low chance of rain.
Mahale/OUN
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR with breezy S winds tapering to 10 knots or less by sunset and
remaining mostly light through Thursday.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion