Olpe, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

159
FXUS63 KTOP 301951
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
251 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few isolated showers may form early tomorrow morning over
  north-central areas.
- Overall warm temperatures remain in place through the coming weekend.
  Highs in the 80s with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
- Low end rain chances return to the forecast off and on
  starting Sunday into early next week. Any one period looks to
  remain below 30% chance POPs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
No significant pattern change in the upper air flow at this time. A
pair of tropical cyclones remain of the eastern coast. An
anticyclone is over the Tennessee Valley region with ridge axis
extending into the upper MS Valley region and central Canada. Return
flow remain into the southern and central Plains albeit weak overall
advection. A broad trough is over the western CONUS with a subtle
wave containing to fill as it lifts into the central Plains at 19Z
hour.
Mostly cloudy skies remain in place for this afternoon but clear
into the evening and overnight period. If clouds clear early enough,
wouldn`t rule out patchy ground fog again tomorrow morning.
Confidence is low at this time in this scenario. Could still be
sufficient isentropic ascent over central and north-central areas
into tomorrow morning that isolated showers may develop over western
areas. Have kept any mention of light rain around 15% or below due
to a dry overall atmospheric profile. But, some guidance does show
low to midlevel saturation with weak lift associated with the weak
wave slowly drifting overhead.
With no major pattern change until the western trough can dig into
further into the western CONUS and Intermountain West, expect
persistent ridging to remain generally across the central CONUS with
sufficiently warm H85 temps that middle to upper 80s with slightly
higher dewpoints around 60 remain in place for early fall. Doesn`t
look like relief to either of these elements takes place until the
end of the weekend into early next week.
By Sunday, ensemble data still suggests a general increase in
overall precipitation chances across the area. Cluster ensembles
still exhibit wide enough spread in trough placement to bring POPs
above 20-30% over any one period with much of the better forcing
north and northeast of the area. Trends suggest cooler overall
temperatures into next week with generally more cloudy periods or
possible precipitation helping to keep the atmosphere cooler. Also,
overall heights lower and favor a cooler lower level atmosphere
during the long range periods but any low level cool front appears
to be just that, highly modified and hard to call a meaningful cold
front at this time. Most likely temperatures finally hover closer to
near-normal for this time of year which is around the upper 70s and
low to middle 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions prevail for much of the period. However, low-lying
areas may once again see some morning fog but too low
confidence to add at this time. South winds may increase near
the very end of the period especially over western terminals.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...ICT

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion