Old Round Rock, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

220
FXUS64 KEWX 291126
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm days and mild nights will continue for another week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A shortwave trough based currently over the Gulf of CA will lift
NE across NW TX late today into tonight. High pressure will
still be in control of South Central TX, but a surge of higher
and some mid level cloudiness will spread into the region before
lifting north of the area Tuesday. Satellite loops and the rapid
refresh models seem to show more of an impact on the area than
do the medium range models. The HRRR and at least half the HREF
member show some light to moderate rain showers that could move
over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. This afternoon, but
the coarser 12K NAM is unable to generate anything. We`ll favor
the NBM and the more stable coarser solutions on the notion
that the mid levels will be quite dry and should make much of
the echoes that might show up on radars to be mostly virga.
There does appear to be a good signal for some areas of thick
cloud cover which should help with dropping the max temps from 1
to 4 degrees off the previous day. Morning mins today and
Tuesday may be affected a degree or two mainly near the Rio
Grande this morning and the northern Hill Country and Central
Texas Tuesday morning. The clouds will be mostly departed by
late Tuesday morning, so the max temp for Tuesday should
resemble those seen on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Aside from the cloud and temperature adjustments off
persistence weather in the short term, we`ll continue to see a
general persistence pattern through much of the week. High
pressure builds back over TX from the west but remains weaker to
the east, leading to a dry N or NW flow pattern at all levels
from 700 mbs on up. The means we`ll continue to see this
fluctuation of shallow low level and surface winds turning
southerly or SE at night and mixing back to an N or NE wind in
the midday to early evening, and the overall wind speed to
remain light as well. This means dew points for most areas
should stay in the 50s through the work week, leading to more
pleasant morning low temperatures.
A polar trough moving through the western CONUS Friday will
begin pushing on the upper ridge aloft which will end up erasing
the weakness in the upper ridge over East TX. The result of this
will probably mean a return to higher humidity days with a few
more morning and daytime cumulus clouds. Unfortunately, the
pattern shift doesn`t do much in terms of improving our chances
for rain.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
VFR conditions through the TAF period with high cirrus moving
through the region. Variable winds around or less than 5 KT
this morning, becoming NE to E 5-10KT this afternoon for most
locations, SE along the Rio Grande.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  94  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  93  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            65  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  93  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  91  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             65  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  95  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  94  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  93  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           69  95  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...76

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion