Oakland, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

740
FXUS63 KOAX 092042
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
342 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog are expected to develop tonight across,focused
  north of a line from Columbus to Harlan, Iowa where
  visibilities of 1 mile or less are possible.
- Highs return to the and lows to the 60s into the weekend. A
  few spots are expected to see lower 90s Friday and Saturday.
- Periodic chances for thunderstorms will be present between
  Wednesday evening and the end of the weekend, though expect
  much more dry time than wet. The highest chances (20-40%) are
  on Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Today and Tomorrow:
Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a shortwave trough
exiting the Mid-Missouri Valley towards the Great Lakes region, a
largely swept-out eastern third of the CONUS, and a longwave trough
pushing further onto the Pacific shore. Taking a look at a recent
surface analysis, we find the forecast area on the eastern periphery
of a messy junction of surface boundaries that arc from Nebraska/
eastern Colorado where the main effective surface lows exist with a
few tendrils extending into South Dakota and across
Kansas/Oklahoma. The best moisture locally continues to be found
across the forecast area and has resulted in a bank of cumulus
clouds that are trying to limit how much we can heat up so far
this afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are expected through the
rest of the day, with only a few showers expected to drift
through just to the north and west of the forecast area.
Overnight, winds that had been out of the southwest are expected to
slow down and turn southeasterly. Only a few to scattered high
clouds are expected to drift in from the west overnight, and that
should allow for ample radiational cooling to occur and push
temperatures below the afternoon dewpoints/crossover temperatures.
Areas of patchy fog are expected to develop -- especially where
winds are expected to become calm, which appears most likely north
of a line from Columbus to Harlan, Iowa. For now, the most likely
time for fog to affect those areas would be from 3 AM to 9 AM, with
conditions expected to improve quickly thereafter. From there, light
southeasterly winds will continue into the afternoon with skies
clearing out by sunset after highs in the lower 80s are reached.
Thursday and Beyond:
Beginning Thursday, a warmup will be full swing as the
aforementioned longwave trough anchors over the western third of the
CONUS and helps prop up a ridge over the Central and Southern
Plains. Highs are going to be in the mid 80s Thursday with a quick
jump into the lower 90s Friday. Models guidance is aiming its
hottest day of the forecast at Friday for Nebraska before shifting
it into Iowa for Saturday. As of this forecast, highs for the
hottest stretch are conservative compared to the
deterministic/ensemble guidance, with bias-corrected output
holding temperatures down, while the straight blends and
deterministic output being 2-5+ degrees warmer comparatively.
With a general lack of surface moisture/oppressive humidity,
we`ll dodge dangerous heat indices. That being said, folks
across the country have been enjoying highs in the lower 70s,
and a 20-degree jump could be a shock to the system to many and
could serve as a sneaky heat threat for those that may push it
this weekend getting yard work done.
For the remainder of the forecast, we`ll thankfully see high
temperatures begin to fall closer to but still warmer than the
normal September range, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s
anticipated. This will be kicked off by the ejection of the
aforementioned trough to the west across the Central/Northern Plains
late Saturday into early Sunday. After that feature pushes through,
we may see an uptick of shower/storm activity as west-southwesterly
flow kicks in and several mid-level shortwaves push through early to
mid-next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
SCT to BKN ceilings are in place across the area, with KLNK
being the only terminal with actual restrictions in place due to
higher coverage at FL029. Southerly winds are in place at less
than 10 kts, which should persist into the evening and overnight,
becoming slower and more southeasterly after dark. The main
thing to watch will be fog overnight, which should affect at
least northeast Nebraska with visibilities of 3 miles or less.
For KLNK and KOMA, a conservative start is in the TAFs for this
issuance, hoping for a continued/stronger signal before going
all-in and including IFR or worse restrictions -- largely from
10 to 14z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion