Oakhurst, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

761
FXUS64 KTSA 071719
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Dry conditions are favored through the week, with only a slight
chance of rain in parts of NE OK Monday night/ Tuesday.
- Temperatures warm back to near or slightly above average by mid
to late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Quiet conditions are likely across E OK and NW AR today and tonight
under the influence of sfc high pressure. High clouds within the NW
flow will continue to stream into the area, but plenty of sunshine
is expected this afternoon. Combined with light winds, another
pleasantly cool September day is in store for the region with highs
in the lower 80s and overnight temps in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2025
Overall, the extended forecast looks to remain mostly uneventful,
though recent guidance has slightly ticked up precip potential for
parts of NE OK Monday into Tuesday. The upper air pattern through
mid week features ridging across the southwestern states and N
Mexico, and troughing over the eastern US. This will maintain NW
flow aloft for the central and southern Plains. High pressure will
gradually shift east over the next couple of days, allowing for the
return of low level southerly flow and increasing moisture. A subtle
wave embedded within the NW flow is forecast to navigate into the
plains Monday into Tuesday.
Latest CAMs suggest convection will be impacting portions of S KS
during the day Monday... mostly dissipating as it nears the
increasingly stable airmass over our CWA. Some showers or weak
storms cannot be ruled out over far NW parts of the FA tomorrow
afternoon/ evening, but will keep PoPs just below mentionable at
this time. As the wave remains in the vicinity and mid-level
moisture expands into the area Monday night into Tuesday morning,
isolated to scattered convection will be possible along the moist
axis extending into NE OK. Most ensemble members suggest QPF will
remain light, with CAMs indicating spotty coverage... though low
PoPs were expanded slightly to account for this potential. Some
guidance suggests periodic additional low rain and storm potential
through mid week (mainly in NE OK), but overall, predominantly dry
conditions are expected at this time given the increasing influence
from upper level ridging. Temperatures gradually warm back to near
or slightly above average by mid-late week... generally in the 80s/
lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions are largely expected to continue through the
forecast period. Still potential for patchy fog around sunrise in
favored valley locations, however specific terminal impacts remain
low confidence and not included at this time. Otherwise increasing
mid / high clouds across NE OK expected tomorrow but no aviation
impact.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  81  61  81 /   0  10  20  10
FSM   59  83  58  84 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   57  81  58  82 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   54  80  58  81 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   51  81  55  82 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   52  80  54  83 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   57  81  59  81 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   56  81  58  81 /   0  10  10  10
F10   57  81  58  81 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   58  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion