Norton, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

302
FXUS63 KGLD 260609
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1209 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly above normal temperatures (upper 70s to mid 80s) and
  dry conditions are forecast through the weekend.
- Gusty south winds of 30-45 mph return Sunday and Monday.
- There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms returning
  early next work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1208 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Today, an upper trough is forecast to slide through the Northern
Plains through the day. As it does so, it is forecast to help deepen
the surface low pressure along the Front Range and shift it east.
That being said, it is unlikely that it deepens so much that wind
gusts exceed 25 mph, with the deeper low and greater concentration
forecast to be in the Northern Plains. With the surface low`s
positioning, the low level flow is forecast to remain from the
south/southwest through the day and allow for some weak warm air
advection. With it and sunny skies, high temperatures should peak
closer to the mid 80s, slightly warmer than yesterday.
Tonight, the surface low should move through the area and shift
winds to out of the north around 10 mph. With the winds keeping the
lower level mixed and some high level cloud cover forecast to move
through, low temperatures should be a bit warmer in the upper 40s
and 50s. There is a chance for some transient fog along the leading
edge of the wind shift as the low moves through the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
As that upper high shifts east, the pattern becomes
increasingly amplified, with strengthening diffluent south-
southwesterly flow emerging across the Southwest and High
Plains. The aforementioned cut-off low will get swept up by
these southwesterlies aloft, and consequently a pair of
disturbances will lift across the region, sparking low chances
for precipitation Sunday night and again Monday night into
Tuesday. Confidence in any severe weather remains low at this
time, with limited moisture return being the limiting factor. A
tightening pressure gradient between the surface high slowly
shifting east and one/more lee cyclones developing across
central- eastern CO will also favor seasonably breezy conditions
Sunday through Tuesday. While the magnitude of those southerly
winds each afternoon will be a function of mixing depth (itself
a function of dryline placement), the National Blend of Models
(NBM) suggests the highest confidence in gusts over 40 mph
(60-80% chance) will be Monday west of an Oberlin to Colby to
Russell Springs line. We`ll have to carefully watch the timing
of any fronts to assess potential for blowing dust, as steep
0-2km lapse rates in their wake and strong top of channel winds
(35-40 kt at 850mb) could promote at least some low end
potential. Forecast high temperatures range from the low to mid
80s each day, though one wouldn`t be surprised if Sunday winds
up a little warmer (and windier) than forecast should mixing be
deeper than expected, as LREF mean brings 850mb temps into the
23-24 degC range.
As global deterministic and ensemble guidance diverges mid to
late next week, confidence in the appreciable weather decreases.
However, for what it`s worth, NBM yields generally sub
mentionable (i.e., less than 15%) chances for precipitation
Wednesday and beyond, with temperatures trending near normal in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions remain expected through the
period. There is still a less than 10% chance for fog before 14Z
at either site with the south/southwesterly winds and dry air
remaining the main inhibitors. Winds should remain roughly from
the south through the period at 10 kts or less. The exception is
between 17-22Z as a low pressure system moves near and may
increase the winds closer to 15 kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Bumgardner
AVIATION...KAK

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion