890 FXUS63 KOAX 271021 AFDOAXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 521 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures will continue into next week with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s.
- Dry conditions persist well into next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave trof pushing through the Dakotas and knocking down the ridging responsible for the warm temperatures across the area over the past few days. Cutoff lows are evident over SoCal and Huntsville, AL. A few clouds at 50k feet over MN indicate the location of the leading edge of the cooler air as of 3am. Surface obs show winds have turned from the south to the northwest at Albion and Sioux Falls.
Expect the dry frontal passage to continue southeast through the course of the morning; Expect it through Norfolk around 4am, then Lincoln around 9am and Omaha one hour later. Skies should remain clear today and despite losing three (south) to ten (north) degrees from the highs of Friday, today should be the fourth day in a row of above average high temps.
Although there won`t be much for cloud cover, there will be some elevated wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest, especially after noon today. That smoke should primarily remain above 1500 feet and should have minimal impact at the surface.
.SUNDAY...
As the front continues southeast on Sunday, the surface high follows along and southerly return flow develops in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The entire area should get back into the lower to mid-80s as the H5 ridge redevelops.
.NEXT WEEK...
That ridge is expected to linger through the work week with our weather stuck on repeat. Lower to mid-80s are anticipated each afternoon for the work/school week as dry weather persists. Fire danger will be creeping up as fuels cure.
A broad trof is expected to approach the area by Friday / the weekend with a few different low centers threatening / promising the opportunity for precipitation and seasonal temperatures.
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.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 519 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A weak cold front is working through the area this morning. It has already found its way through KOFK, brining northwesterly winds to that aerodrome at about 10 knots. Expect the wind shift to push through KLNK around 9am and KOMA at 10am. Southerly winds will become northerly as the boundary pushes through.
Skies will remain mostly clear, though there will be some elevated wildfire smoke from about FL010 to FL060, especially this afternoon.
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.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None.
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DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Nicolaisen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion