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Nettie, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

535
FXUS61 KRLX 200934
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 534 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS... Warm weather prevails for the weekend, but some areas see chances of precipitation. Chances of rain and storms become more widespread for the next work week.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 AM Saturday...

Unseasonably warm weather will continue today. A weak cold front has become nearly stationary across northern West Virginia this morning. This has allowed for an increase in moisture over the mountains. The moisture appears to be sufficient for some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. With a weak flow and a frontal boundary for focusing, any storms will be slow moving and could quickly produce several inches of rainfall, especially in the northern West Virginia mountains. The dry weather from the last month and a half means that the area can take 2 to 3 inches of rainfall before any problems develop, so not expecting any widespread issues. Will have to keep a close eye on this situation however.

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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM Saturday...

Starting Sunday, high pressure at the surface weakens along with upper level ridging flattening allowing for some potential for diurnal shower and storm activity across southeast Ohio and maybe along the mountains. Temperatures rise into the lower 80s along the mountains allowing for some elevated heat source to remain a fuel for development as well as southeasterly flow along the leeward sides of the mountains supporting upslope. This upslope flow will consequently support orographic lift for another source for activity development.

With a decent moisture flux and chances for more activity for Monday as a low pressure system is forecast to traverse across the Great Lakes. This system will bring a upper level short wave to the area as upper level ridging drifts off to the east and weakens. Lowering heights continues through Tuesday as the upper level system settles in which will likely generate more activity on Tuesday which will be both non-diurnal and diurnal in nature. Tuesday is forecast to be the most active with likely PoPs during the afternoon and evening. However, thunderstorm chances will be on the lower side going into Tuesday, but will dramatically increase by Tuesday afternoon.

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM Saturday...

By Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move through which will keep diurnal PoPs on the table for the afternoon and evening to account for shower and storm potential. A low pressure system is then forecast to develop out in the Midwest and approach the area by Friday. This system, if it comes to fruition, will impact the area and keep active weather on the table for us going into the weekend. Starting midweek temperatures will stay below the 80 degree mark for the rest of this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 530 AM Saturday...

After any fog burns off this morning, expect VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period with the exception of some scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the mountains. Those storms could produce brief IFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium for afternoon showers/thunderstorms in the mountains.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Afternoon showers and thunderstorms may or may not affect TAF sites.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 09/20/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Compared to historical records and the 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, it was a very warm summer across the NWS Charleston forecast area. The summer season encapsulates the period of June 1st through August 31st. Mean temperatures for the 2025 summer season were generally 1 to 3 degrees above normal. This translated into four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the top 10 in terms of their warmest mean summer temperatures on record.

As is typical during the summer season, precipitation totals varied rather significantly across the forecast area depending on location, ranging from as low as 7 to 9 inches in portions of southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky, to as high as 16 to nearly 20 inches across some locations in the lowlands of West Virginia and northeast mountains. This resulted in a wide range of precipitation departures depending on location, with some areas ending up well below normal in terms of total precipitation, while others well above normal, with the overall spread of departures ranging from approximately +/- 5 inches. Even with this wide range of precipitation totals across the forecast area, no top 10s were set at any of the official NWS Charleston climate locations in terms of wettest or driest summer on record.

Summer 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature) ------------------------------------------------------------------- Location Top 10 Rank Observed Value - Elkins, WV : 2nd Warmest -> 72.1 F - Huntington, WV : 4th Warmest -> 77.9 F - Clarksburg, WV : Tied 4th Warmest -> 74.5 F - Beckley, WV : 6th Warmest -> 71.9 F -------------------------------------------------------------------

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.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...RPY

CLIMATE...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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