Neosho, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

830
FXUS63 KSGF 011140
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s (5 to 15 degrees
  above normal) and mainly dry weather expected through the end
  of the week
- While some widely isolated showers will be possible Thursday
  afternoon (5-10% chance), the next main potential for
  rainfall is not expected until early to middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Current RAP analysis depicts a unique upper level pattern
over the area. Mostly zonal flow is present over the CONUS
except for an island of diverting flow aloft over the Middle
Mississippi Valley. This puts weak upper-level flow above our
area, allowing for surface high pressure to create clear skies
and very calm air. Satellite imagery shows that skies are a bit
clearer than forecast, allowing some areas to see temperatures
drop below 60 F. With dewpoints in the upper 50s, this may allow
for some light ground fog this morning, especially in low-lying
areas.
Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather continue:
As has been said for the past few days, the upper-level and
surface high pressure systems will allow for continued dry
weather and above normal temperatures. Highs today and Thursday
will be in the middle to upper 80s, and even near 90 F in some
locations, which is 10-15 degrees above normal. Lows are also
expected to be mild for this time of year in the upper 50s to
middle 60s.
5-10% chance for widely isolated showers Thursday:
A small nuance to the persistence forecast arrives Thursday. As
the shortwave ridge exits eastward, a backdoor cold front at the
surface will enter the eastern Ozarks. Moisture ahead of this
backdoor cold front will bring some limited instability to the
region, with medium-range models depicting median values of
750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The introduction of mild instability ahead
of convergence with the backdoor cold front may be enough for
some isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm along and east
of Highway 65. Currently, our gridded forecast has a 5-10%
chance for precipitation in this area, though medium range
ensembles, including the REFS and SREF, give a 10-30% chance for
>=0.01" of convective precipitation, so the chance may increase
with subsequent forecast packages.
The main uncertainty with any precipitation Thursday is that as
the shortwave ridge exits eastward, a weak but pronounced
shortwave trough will traverse the region at the same time the
backdoor cold front moves in from the east. The timing of these
features may place synoptic subsidence over the area during peak
heating Thursday afternoon. Therefore, sinking air may be too
much for any convective initiation. Trends will continue to be
monitored.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Above normal temperatures and dry weather through the weekend:
After another day of weak flow and above normal temperatures in
the upper 80s Friday, atmospheric flow starts to increase into
the weekend as a shortwave trough ejects off the Rocky
Mountains, and an energetic longwave trough situates itself
over central Canada. The shortwave trough ejection will force a
surface low pressure system over the Northern Plains, and
tighten the pressure gradient across the central Plains, which
will increase southerly winds across our area Saturday and
Sunday. Therefore, expect breezy conditions this weekend
(compared to recent days) with winds in the 10-15 mph range with
gusts up to 15-20 mph. Current forecasts also project afternoon
relative humidity values in the 30-40% range, though pattern
recognition of a departing surface high pressure system suggests
values may be a bit lower in the 25-30% range. This may present
some minor fire weather concerns, especially with drought-like
conditions in some areas.
Highs will continue to be in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend with lows in the middle 50s to middle 60s.
Next main potential for rainfall not expected until next week:
After the aforementioned shortwave exits and the longwave
becomes situated, the pattern for next week looks to be some
form of enhanced southwesterly flow over the area. Ensembles
also depict an opening gulf with moisture streaming back into
the area sometime next week. At the same time, a front is
progged to be positioned somewhere across the Midwest. All these
ingredients point to rain chances returning next week.
Currently, these are low in the 15-30% range with the greatest
chance being Tuesday. The uncertainty is mainly manifest by
ensembles disagreeing in shortwave trough ejections through the
mostly zonal southwesterly flow, but the pattern supports at
least one day seeing decent rain chances. Details will become
clearer as we progress towards next week.
Temperatures during this period are still expected to be in the
middle to upper 80s with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
While precipitation chances are quite spread, NBM temperature
spreads are still small for this period, pointing to high
confidence in these temperatures occurring. The 8-14 day
forecast from the Climate Prediction Center points to a 60-70%
chance for above normal temperatures to continue in the October
8th-14th timeframe, though it is important to note these
forecasts give no indication of how above normal temperatures
will be. Normal temperatures for early October are in the
mid-70s, so there is a 60-70% chance for anything above that
range between October 8th-14th.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Some light ground fog is currently being observed at BBG and
JLN, but visibilities are expected to stay within VFR range for
the first few hours of the TAF period. After 14Z, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail at all TAF sites with light 3-8 kt winds
out of the south-southwest. SCT high clouds will be around the
sites throughout the period, with the potential for a sparse
6-7 kft cu field between 18-00Z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion