Nechanitz, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

059
FXUS64 KEWX 281117
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
617 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Status quo continues with hot days and seasonably mild
  nights.
- No significant rain chances through the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY)...
A few more high clouds will spread in from the Pacific where
the ocean there has been fairly active in the tropics. The ridge
over TX is stubborn though so we expect mainly some
cirrostratus while mid and lower levels of the atmosphere remain
very dry and influenced by a continental NE wind. There is a
shallow layer of Gulf moisture denoted at the top of the
boundary layer, but this will only generate a few afternoon
cumulus and a small pocket of morning low clouds if anything at
all. With this in mind we should expect near persistence weather
with high temperatures today similar to those of Saturday.
Relatively low dew point temps in the 50s means that nighttime
mins fall cooler and lead to pleasant mid to late evening
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The upper ridge over TX gets a slight nudge east Monday night,
as a shortwave trough cuts NE across W & N TX. By daytime
Tuesday, the trough axis cuts across the northern parts of the
I-35 corridor, possibly bringing a thicker layer of high clouds
and possibly some mid level clouds. Low to mid levels will
remain dry as the lower level winds at the top part of the
mixed layer remain dry easterly. The NBM, which looked a degree
or two too cool for today`s maxes, look more appropriate for
Tuesday given the extra cloud cover. A dry NW flow aloft pattern
develops over N & Central TX midweek, but the presence of the
upper ridge over S TX is influential enough to keep the air
stable and result in a slight warming trend on temperatures.
This makes the mid week max temps more in line with persistence
from today`s forecast maxes.
Late in the week and over the weekend the shortwave trough pulls
in some drifting vorticity from the Tennessee River valley and
retrogrades southwestward to set up a near stationary upper low
over E TX by Friday. This pattern is trending deeper and more
westward into TX, with the latest GFS leading the way. This
could be an interesting shift in pattern should this
amplification continue in later runs. As for now, the consensus
is mainly for a weaker upper disturbance more over TX/LA while
the upper ridging to the west builds in amplitude over the
central CONUS, keeping Central TX free of any lower level
moisture influx. While this is unhelpful to restore any much
needed rain chances, it favors more persistent days with summer-
like highs and quickly cooling evening and overnight temps.
This is the type of weather that makes this time of year and region
extra appealing for people that prefer warm weather.
&&
.AVIATION (11Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
VFR conditions through the TAF period with scattered cirrus moving
through the region. Variable winds around or less than 5 KT
this morning, becoming NE to E 5-10KT this afternoon for most
locations, SE along the Rio Grande.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  91  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  91  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  91  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            63  86  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  89  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  89  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             64  91  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  92  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   62  92  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  91  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           67  93  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...76

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion