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Necaise, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

575
FXUS64 KMOB 220503
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

A subtle shortwave trough transits the area this afternoon, allowing for an isolated coverage of showers and storms this afternoon into early evening. In the wake of this feature, the region returns to a dry forecast as we go into Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures remain well above normal today and Tuesday, with highs topping out in the lower to middle 90`s. Overnight lows will remain in the middle 60`s over the interior with middle to upper 60`s nearer the coast through Tuesday night.

A transient shortwave will push across the forecast area Wednesday, allowing for isolated to locally scattered showers and storms to develop once again. Best coverage will be across the western half of the forecast area where better forcing will exist. Another more potent upper trough will pivot across the forecast area as we head into Thursday and Thursday night, with a cold front expected to move through the area sometime Thursday night into early Friday morning. The trough amplifies Thursday taking on a neutral tilt by Thursday night. This will allow for our best chance at showers and thunderstorms so far this month Thursday into Thursday night, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. An overlap of around 30 knots of deep layer shear, MLCAPE values around 1,000j/kg, and adequate forcing Thursday into early Thursday evening may help to set the stage for a low end threat of severe weather. Confidence remains low at this time given differences in how forecast guidance is handling the troughs evolution and magnitude of instability, however a low end threat for strong to damaging wind gusts may exist for portions of the forecast area Thursday into early Thursday evening. Afternoon highs Wednesday top out in the lower to middle 90`s, with much cooler temperatures Thursday in the lower to middle 80`s owing to ample cloud cover and shower/thunderstorm coverage. Lows Wednesday night only fall into the upper 60`s over the interior and lower to middle 70`s nearer the coast.

A cold front passes through the area Thursday night into Friday and the aforementioned upper trough either moves east of the forecast area into the Mid-Atlantic states or becomes a cutoff low. Either way, it will move far enough east to put our area underneath northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. This will usher in drier air to round out the week into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers may linger mostly east of the I-65 corridor Friday before the forecast returns to being dry as we head into the weekend. Afternoon highs will top out in the middle to upper 80`s Friday, with upper 80`s and lower 90`s returning for the weekend. Overnight lows will be noticeably cooler in the lower to middle 60`s each night in the wake of the front. A few spots over the interior may even see some upper 50`s for lows any given night. A Low risk of rip currents remains in place for our Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches through Wednesday, becoming a Moderate risk Thursday for the Florida Panhandle beaches. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

VFR flight category prevails across the region today outside of temporary flight category reductions underneath isolated showers or storms. Winds remain generally light and variable through daybreak at less than 5 knots, becoming southeasterly to southerly at 5 to 10 knots Monday. MM/25

&&

.MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow prevails through Tuesday, becoming southerly to southwesterly for Wednesday and Thursday. Light to occasionally moderate offshore flow becomes established Friday and into the weekend in the wake of a cold front. No other impacts are anticipated other than higher winds and seas near storms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 69 89 68 90 69 91 72 87 / 10 20 0 10 10 20 40 60 Pensacola 72 88 72 89 72 89 75 87 / 10 20 0 10 0 10 30 60 Destin 73 87 73 87 74 88 76 86 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 20 60 Evergreen 66 93 65 94 66 94 70 88 / 20 10 0 0 0 10 30 60 Waynesboro 66 90 65 92 67 92 69 84 / 20 10 0 10 0 30 50 50 Camden 66 91 67 93 68 92 69 84 / 20 10 0 0 0 10 40 60 Crestview 66 92 65 93 66 92 70 88 / 10 20 0 0 0 10 20 60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. &&

$$

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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion

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