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Necaise, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

461
FXUS64 KMOB 231157
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 657 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2025

A subtle shortwave trough transits the area once again this afternoon, perhaps allowing for one or two storms to develop over the region today. Otherwise, most areas stay dry today with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to middle 90`s. Lows tonight fall into the upper 60`s and lower 70`s.

Our primary attention turns to upper troughing across the central U.S. that will gradually work its way eastward Wednesday through Friday. The trough will likely maintain a positive tilt putting the forecast area underneath broad upper difluence Wednesday night into Thursday and gradual height falls. An initial round of showers and storms can be expected for the western half of the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with best coverage later in the evening into overnight hours Wednesday night over interior portions of southeastern Mississippi. Adequate instability will likely be in place with CAM guidance coming into range depicting much of the forecast area maintaining 1,000 to 2,000j/kg of MLCAPE along with around 30 to 35 knots of deep layer shear. If forcing is adequate enough Wednesday night, a low end threat for strong to severe thunderstorms may exist for areas west of the I-65 corridor. Wednesday should be another hot day prior to increasing cloud cover moving in with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to middle 90`s. Wednesday night temperatures will be in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s, middle 70`s nearer the coast.

The next round of showers and storms will likely come through the region Thursday as forcing becomes somewhat stronger and the right entrance region of the jet begins to have an influence on the forecast area. Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms during the day Thursday, with once again a low end threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. The available longer ranged experimental CAMs depict adequate instability to be in place with around 1,000 to 1,500j/kg of MLCAPE, which combined with around 30 knots of deep layer shear and presence of forcing should allow for a couple strong to severe storms to develop. If coverage of showers and storms is widespread, however, afternoon heating and likewise available CAPE for storms could be tempered which would limit the threat for the area. For now, it`s worth continuing to watch as we move forward in time. The upper trough and attendant cold front will slowly work its way through the area as we head into Friday, keeping isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms mainly for the eastern half of the area. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be cooler given the cloud and rain coverage, with highs generally in the lower to middle 80`s, with a few spots touching the upper 80`s. Lows Thursday night will fall to the middle and upper 60`s over the interior with upper 60`s nearer the coast. Friday night will be much cooler in the wake of the cold front with lows in the lower to middle 60`s, perhaps even some upper 50`s over the interior.

As we head into the weekend, we return to dry weather and generally cooler temperatures relative to what we`ve seen the past week. Highs stay in the middle to upper 80`s and overnight lows fall into the lower to middle 60`s. A low risk of rip currents remains in place for our Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches outside of a brief uptick to a Moderate risk for Florida Panhandle beaches Thursday. MM/25

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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Patchy ground fog this morning is leading to localized reduced visibilities to MVFR and patchy IFR. VFR conditions should return over the next couple of hours and persist throughout the day with a light southerly wind developing. BB-8

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.MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2025

A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow prevails today, becoming southerly Wednesday and westerly Thursday. Light to occasionally moderate offshore flow becomes established Friday and into the weekend in the wake of a cold front. No other impacts are anticipated other than higher winds and seas near storms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 91 71 92 73 87 68 86 63 / 0 0 20 30 80 60 30 10 Pensacola 89 73 90 76 88 72 85 68 / 0 0 10 20 70 70 50 10 Destin 89 75 89 76 87 73 84 70 / 0 0 10 10 60 70 60 20 Evergreen 96 67 94 70 88 67 87 62 / 0 0 10 30 80 60 30 10 Waynesboro 93 69 93 69 82 65 84 60 / 0 0 30 50 80 30 10 0 Camden 94 69 93 70 84 66 82 60 / 0 0 10 40 80 40 20 10 Crestview 94 67 93 70 89 68 85 63 / 0 0 10 10 70 70 50 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. &&

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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion

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