Myrtle Beach, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

096
FXUS62 KILM 071804
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
204 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front over the area today will move offshore
tonight into Monday, bringing showers and storms near the coast.
Cooler temperatures and breezy northeasterly winds will then
return as high pressure builds in from the north and low
pressure develops offshore, mainly keeping rain chances confined
to near the coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Above normal rain chances, mainly near the coast thru this eve
*Very low risk for severe storms/flash flooding thru this eve
*Below normal temps
*Minor coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River this eve and
possibly again Mon AM
Confidence:
*Moderate to High
Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. A stalled cold
front over the area this afternoon will move offshore tonight as
high pressure builds from the north bringing drier air into the
area. Some showers and a few storms are expected through this eve,
especially near the coast where convergence along the sea breeze
will be enhanced. Deep moisture and weak storm motions should allow
for locally heavy rainfall, possibly leading to minor flooding of
low-lying and poorly drained areas. Although the risk for severe
storms is very low due to limited instability/mid-level dry air,
can`t rule out a storm with marginally damaging wind gusts around 60
mph. Most of the rain will end this evening but some could linger
overnight into Mon (mainly near the coast) as weak troughing
continues aloft. Northerly winds will bring in cooler/below normal
temps starting tonight. Lows will generally range from the lower to
mid 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast. Highs Monday will
mainly be around 80 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Full speed ahead with the CAD wedge, with high pressure settling in
New England for quite awhile. Longwave trough aloft keeps the old
frontal boundary offshore, keeping scattered showers and isolated
storms over the coastal waters. Weak low pressure along this front
may try to sneak in a couple of showers along the coast Tuesday
afternoon, but otherwise, forecast looks dry. Otherwise, look for
that classic northeasterly breeze from the wedge. Lows each night in
the low-to-mid 60s. Highs Tuesday in the upper 70s to near 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Temperatures rebound by about 2-3 degrees Wednesday over northeast
SC, but otherwise, the forecast looks rather identical to Tuesday.
Low pressure along the offshore frontal boundary looks to tighten up
a bit and travel up towards the OBX Wednesday, but stays far enough
offshore to not introduce any significant rain chances.
Troughing pattern aloft swings through the eastern seaboard
Thursday, finally pushing that old frontal boundary further out to
sea. High pressure in the Northeast continues to dominate,
maintaining a dry forecast everyday. High temperatures generally
rebound a bit into the low-to-mid 80s. Lows each night in the lower
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moderate to high confidence through 18Z Mon. Mainly VFR conditions
to start the period but expect an increasing risk for restrictions
from low clouds and showers/storms (mainly near the coast) later
this aftn/eve as a cold front moves through. Although rain chances
will diminish overnight the risk for low clouds will increase until
late tonight when drier air will begin to move in from the north.
MVFR cigs are most likely with IFR cigs possible (mainly near the
coast). Winds will increase out of the NE overnight, gusting to
around 20 kt at times (mainly near the coast).
Extended Outlook...High pressure from the north to settle in late
through mid week, bringing periodic restrictions from mainly low
stratus near the coast. Breezy NE winds could periodically gust to
20+ kt, mainly at the coastal terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Monday...High pressure will build in from the north slowly
pushing a stationary front over the area to the east of the local
waters. This will lead to an increasing pressure gradient after the
front passes which will cause an uptick in winds/seas, reaching
Small Craft Advisory levels (25-30 kt gusts starting after midnight
and then 6 ft seas starting Mon). Gusts could reach up to around 30
kt Mon while seas possibly reach 7 ft toward 20 nm offshore later
in the day.
Monday Night through Friday...Stiff northeasterly winds stick around
through the entire period. Small Craft Advisory continues until 6 AM
EDT Wednesday. From there, winds and seas loosen up a bit, with
continued gusts up to 20-23 kts, and waves in the 2-4 ft range.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The full moon and elevated northeast winds will keep tides higher
than normal into late week. Minor coastal flooding is expected along
the lower Cape Fear River during each high tide as well as along the
NE SC and SE NC coasts during each high tide Mon eve thru at least
Wed AM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Monday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJB

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion