Mount Enterprise, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

815
FXUS64 KSHV 140548
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
- High pressure will keep rain chances low and temperatures high
   through the weekend into next week across the Four State
   Region.
- Increased rain chances will slowly return to portions of the
   region by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Persistent ridging aloft will continue to influence weather
conditions across the Four State Region through the rest of this
weekend into the beginning of next week. The strength and
orientation of the ridge axis will (as we`ve witnessed in the past
few afternoons/evenings) be weak enough to support another round
of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Variably light winds and
above-normal temperature maximums for this time of the year (upper
90s) will also continue with outflow boundaries from showers
contributing to the variability in surface winds. Otherwise, the
only reprieve from more dangerous heat will come from dew points
remaining in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Medium-range guidance
continues to suggest the ridge axis breaking down across the
Midwest into the Lower Mississippi River valley by middle of next
week. Long-range guidance suggests further degradation of this
ridging that opens the door for a synoptic pattern change to
troughing across the Great Plains, and enhances our chances of
rain into late September. This appears to be in the form of
diurnally driven convection before a frontal boundary transits the
southern Great Plains to force more widespread rain chances across
the area. /16/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 913 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
For the 14/00z TAF period...VFR conditions will prevail overnight
with some mid to high clouds streaming over the area. Afternoon CU
will return tomorrow, with some isolated showers and/or
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. This could result in
some brief reduced flight categories. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions with light ESE winds. /20/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  95  72 /  20  20   0   0
MLU  95  70  95  71 /  20  20  10   0
DEQ  93  68  93  67 /  20  20  10   0
TXK  95  71  96  70 /  20  20   0   0
ELD  94  68  94  68 /  20  20  10   0
TYR  92  71  91  70 /  20  20   0   0
GGG  93  70  93  69 /  20  20   0   0
LFK  94  70  93  68 /  20  20   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion