Morrill, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

808
FXUS63 KTOP 020533
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is about a 15% chance for a shower to pop up across the
  area through tonight.
- There is good confidence in above normal temperatures continuing
  through Saturday.
- There is a 20-40% chance of precipitation Sunday night through
  Tuesday, but lower predictability in the forecast means the
  details could change.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A few showers are possible early this afternoon across central
Kansas as some weak moisture advection coincides with a weak
mid-level wave that is traversing northern Kansas. With a very
dry boundary-layer, elevated showers may not be strong enough
for precipitation to reach the ground.
Later tonight, additional warm/moist advection, isentropic lift
and a low-level jet may all combine to produce isolated showers
across portions of central Kansas. Again, with a relatively dry
boundary-layer in place, precipitation may struggle to reach the
ground.
Several warm days are ahead with an upper-level ridge building
into the central Plains and warm southerly flow at the surface
continuing. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s, which are 10-15
degrees above normal (typically mid 70s this time of year), are
expected through Saturday. The ridge begins to break down this
weekend. By Sunday, an upper-level trough will move into the
northern Plains. Just how far south this trough develops and any
associated precipitation moves is still in question, but right
now it appears a front may push far enough south to impede on
our area by Sunday afternoon. There may be enough moisture
convergence and mid-level energy available for some showers to
develop along the front Sunday evening into Monday. This front
may stall out in the neighborhood Sunday through the middle of
next week and could be a focus for several rounds of showers or
thunderstorms. Ensemble model guidance shows a very large
spread in the temperature and precipitation forecast for next
week, likely due to the uncertainty of where exactly that
boundary will setup.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR TAFs will persist through the period. The only hazard to
mention is the low-end chance (10-15%) of a shower at KMHK
through the early morning hours today. Confidence in this
occurring was not high enough, so kept out mention.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Griesemer

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion