Moorefield, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

264
FXUS63 KLBF 092317
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
617 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
  across southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills. Large hail and
  strong wind gusts will be the primary severe weather concerns.
- Temperatures remain warmer than average through the end of
  the week and into the weekend. A cold front this weekend
  brings seasonal temperatures for a day or two.
- The weekend cold front also brings our next best chances for
  appreciable rainfall across western and north central
  Nebraska.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A surface boundary is observed across central Nebraska this
afternoon, with a corridor of ample moisture streaming across the
Great Plains. The special 18z upper air flight at LBF shows a fairly
shallow cap and over 3,000 surface based CAPE. While low level
shear remains fairly meager, deep layer shear remains quite
strong, supportive of discrete cells this afternoon and evening.
As the cap erodes and storms form late this afternoon and
evening, cells will be able to quickly grow, with the strongest
storms posing a threat for large hail and gusty across the
Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. With the supportive
environment, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded
into the Sandhills for this afternoon and evening. As we track
further into the evening, the severe threat begins to dwindle,
however, showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
overnight hours across southwest Nebraska, mostly along and
south of Interstate 80. Dewpoints remain high overnight, and
given the generally calm surface winds, for development is
likely tonight across most of southwest, central, and north
central Nebraska. Along with the higher dewpoints, overnight
lows remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region.
Wednesday, an upper level high builds across central Texas, keeping
the trough to the west and a ridge over western Nebraska. Cooler air
trails in the wake of the surface boundary, keeping temperatures a
bit cooler across portions of southwest and central Nebraska
tomorrow, with highs expected in the low to mid 80s. To the
northwest, slightly better daytime heating will allow for
temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints climb
into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the region, keeping humidity
values above 40 percent and limiting the fire weather concerns from
the previous days. With the ridge in place, chances for showers and
thunderstorms have decreased slightly, with a very localized slight
chance of showers near Pine Ridge in the late afternoon and evening,
driven mostly by daytime heating. With the robust dewpoints
remaining in the region, overnight lows remain in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Upper level ridging continues on Thursday and Friday, keeping our
afternoon highs above seasonal averages. Widespread highs both days
reach into the upper 80s across the region, with some areas breaking
into the lower 90s. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure
will limit precipitation chances through the afternoon hours both
days. Dewpoints remain fairly robust across the region, with
dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s to 60s. This will help keep our
minimum humidity values above 30 percent throughout this slightly
hotter period, again limiting fire weather concerns.
Late Friday into the weekend, the upper level trough tracks further
east, bringing stronger winds aloft across the region. A cold front
tracks through the region, bringing our next chances of appreciable
rainfall. Ensemble guidance remains optimistic for wetting
precipitation this weekend, bringing a 40 to 70 percent chance
across northern Nebraska and the Sandhills, with around a 30 to 40
percent chance of wetting precipitation across southwest Nebraska.
Will need to keep an eye on forecast trends through the week, as
ample moisture and upper level flow this weekend may allow for some
stronger thunderstorms to develop. Along with the rainfall, the cold
front brings us back to near seasonal temperatures for at least
Sunday, but depending on hwo quickly the front arrives, we could see
more seasonal temperatures on Saturday as well.
As for early next week, guidance suggests we will be caught in
between two upper level shortwaves. This does throw a little
uncertainty into temperatures early week, with temperatures ranging
from near normal to above normal. Much will depend on the timing of
the second shortwave to the west. If it arrives later, could see
some higher temperatures on Monday in particular. If it arrives ahead
of what guidance suggests, we are more likely to remain near
seasonal. Again, will need to keep an eye on the forecast trends
over the next several days, as models and ensembles come into better
agreement on the upper level pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Main aviation concerns will be threat of ongoing convection
moving in from the west followed by patchy fog early Wednesday
morning. At this time, convection remains very slow moving and
recent short-term guidance continues to paint little to no
impacts at area terminals. Because of this, opted to omit
mention at this time but LBF will be the greatest uncertainty so
trends will be monitored. Late tonight, more patchy fog favoring
central Nebraska appears probable. How far west this makes it
and to what magnitude is somewhat in question. Have continued
mention of low-end impacts at LBF though some potential for
greater reductions in vsby and CIGs remains. Will monitor
closely.
Thereafter, expecting a dry but blustery day Wednesday with
southeast winds gusting around 25 knots during the afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion