Monte Nido, California Weather Forecast Discussion

473
FXUS66 KLOX 060349
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
849 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...05/848 PM.
Cooler than normal conditions will continue through midweek due
to a broad area of upper-level low pressure over the West. Night
through morning low clouds and fog will be in the forecast each
night and morning through the week. Drizzle or light rain cannot
be ruled out over portions of the area tonight and Monday night.
There is a chance of rain for late week as a monsoonal flow is
expected to develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...05/834 PM.
A broad trough of low pressure remains over the western states
this evening. Temperatures warmed to near normal today, but
reinforcement of the trough tonight will likely bring some cooling
for Monday and Tuesday. Conditions, typically cooler than normal
will continue over the region into midweek along with night
through morning low clouds and fog being a staple of the forecast.
The low cloud field still looks pretty broken up this evening,
but it is showing some signs of becoming more well-entrenched
overnight. An eddy circulation is progged to redevelop overnight
tonight and into Monday morning and the marine layer depth could
deepen to near 2000 feet deep by Monday morning if NAM BUFR time
height sections play out. To the north, the marine layer depth
will likely be much shallower. 00Z RAOB soundings from KVBG
indicated a marine layer depth near 1000 feet deep, while KLAX
AMDAR soundings around the same time indicated a marine layer
depth around 1500 feet. The forecast banks heavily on clouds
developing but confidence is lower than typical with most marine
layer forecasts. High resolution multi-model ensemble members
indicate a better chance of low clouds versus last night and
suggest the best chance for any low clouds to best for areas
south of Point Conception.
Some dynamics with the trough scrape the area tonight and into
Monday. Patchy night through morning drizzle cannot be ruled out
entirely tonight.
***From Previous Discussion***
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...05/154 PM.
Following the departure of the upper low on Wednesday heights will
begin a steady climb through Friday as high pressure builds north
through the desert southwest. With onshore flow remaining on the
lighter side and a lowering marine inversion, highs in most areas
are expected to warm at least a few degrees and possibly as much
as 10 degrees across some interior areas.
However, there are a couple of significant complicating factors
later this week that will play a role in the forecast. Tropical
storm Priscilla is expected to march up the Baja coast later this
week. At the same time another unseasonably cold upper low
(557dam, below the 5th percentile based on climatology) will drop
down the West coast. Most of the ensemble solutions bring the low
as far south as KSFO Saturday before moving inland. The timing and
track of this low will certainly have an impact on the track of
Priscilla as it moves up the Baja coast. Models have clearly been
struggling with this interaction and whether there will be enough
northward push to bring rain into southern California and
particularly our forecast area. The latest iteration of models
seems to lean slightly towards the wetter side locally, but with
the most impactful weather remains well south and east of LA
County.
&&
.AVIATION...06/0110Z.
Around 2315Z, the marine layer depth was around 1400 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 2600 feet with a
temperature near 22 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in the current forecast for desert terminals.
Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal and valley
terminals. There is a moderate to high chance of LIFR to IFR
conditions at coastal terminals north of Point Conception and IFR
to MVFR conditions for coastal and valley terminals south of Point
Conception after 03Z and continuing through at least 16Z. There
is a low-to-moderate chance of MVFR conditions lingering at
coastal terminals south of Point Conception until as late as 22Z.
KLAX...There is a 30 percent chance of IFR to MVFR conditions
after 04Z, increasing to 50 percent around 07Z. Highest confidence
exists in MVFR conditions. VFR conditions could develop as soon as
16Z, or as late as 21Z. Any easterly winds should be less than 7
knots.
KBUR...There is a 20 percent chance of IFR to MVFR conditions
after 10Z, increasing to 40 percent around 13Z. Highest
confidence exists in IFR conditions, but there is a 10 percent
chance of LIFR conditions for up to two hours after arrival. VFR
conditions could develop as soon as 16Z, or as late as 18Z. No
wind impacts are expected at this time.
&&
.MARINE...05/827 PM.
Winds across the outer waters and nearshore along the Central
Coast are below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels, some choppy,
short- period waves may linger through tonight Conditions are
likely to remain below SCA criteria through Thursday with
increasing winds to near or above SCA levels possible by Friday.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions
should generally remain below SCA criteria through mid week.
There will then be a 20-40% chance for SCA level winds Thursday
and Friday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Hall/MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Hall
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion