Moenkopi, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

871
FXUS65 KFGZ 242242
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
342 PM MST Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Mostly sunny skies, warm temperatures and
northeasterly breezes are expected through the rest of today.
Unsettled weather will return starting Thursday and last into
early next week as a Pacific low pressure system meanders across
the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Rest of today...Northern Arizona currently sits
under a ridge with a positively tilted trough to our east and a
cut-off low to our west. Dry westerly flow aloft will remain in
place today, and dry conditions will continue with clear skies
for most of Northern AZ. Some isolated showers remain possible
east of the White Mountains along the AZ-NM border, but otherwise
expect pleasant conditions with typical afternoon breezes.
Thursday through Sunday...The brief omega block pattern will not
hold as the low propagates eastward over CA. Moist sub-tropical
air gets pulled into northern AZ ahead of the low, and we will see
PW rise well above normal for late September. By Friday the low
dives southward and becomes centered over southwest AZ, before
bouncing back to the northeast and traversing over our CWA
Saturday-Sunday. Storms will begin as isolated convection early
Thursday afternoon, then grow upscale into scattered activity.
Model soundings indicate that elevated instability will remain
present overnight Thursday, and activity looks to continue well
into the evening. Continued scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day through Sunday, but some uncertainty remains
as to how the strength and coverage of storms will vary each day.
Overall, high PW values will be accompanied by ample cooling
aloft due to the passing cyclone and amplified vertical wind shear
each day. This sets up the potential for some organized storms to
reach severe thresholds, and a few rotating storms cannot be
ruled out. Storm motion will be relatively fast, but heavy
rainfall rates and light training could lead to elevated flash
flood risk especially over sensitive terrain features and burn
areas.
Monday and beyond...By Monday, the cutoff low looks to clear out of
northern AZ, and a much drier airmass is left in its wake. Some
isolated thunderstorms along the high terrain remain possible
through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Thursday 25/00Z through Friday 26/00Z...Mainly VFR.
Brief periods of MVFR and gusty, erratic winds expected in SCT
SHRA/TSRA after 20Z, mainly north and east of a KCMR-KPAN line.
Winds E/NE 5-10 kts overnight, becoming S 5-15 kts after 18Z.
Locally gusty NE winds downwind of the terrain overnight.
OUTLOOK...Friday 26/00Z through Sunday 28/00Z...Brief periods of
MVFR and gusty, erratic winds possible in SCT SHRA/TSRA each
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions with daytime winds
S/SE 5-15 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Increasing moisture due to a
Pacific weather system will bring periods of showers and
thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Heavy rainfall, hail, and
gusty winds are all possible hazards. Outside of storms, expect
southerly winds at 5-15 mph both days.
Saturday through Monday...Periods of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through Sunday, with coverage becoming isolated on Monday.
Daytime southerly winds at 10-15 mph each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Meola
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion