Modena, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

538
FXUS63 KILX 232341
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
641 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain with isolated thunderstorms will spread across most of
  central IL from the Illinois River eastward this afternoon and
  evening, and slowly depart the area Wednesday morning. Isolated
  2 inch rainfall amounts will be possible, but most areas should
  see rainfall under a half inch north of I-72, and around an inch
  to the south.
- A stretch of dry weather returns Friday through at least early
  next week with temps returning to above normal (highs in the mid
  80s).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Weak low pressure over eastern OK with an attendant warm frontal
feature extending across MO toward central IL is beginning to
spread showers into southwest portions of central IL this
afternoon, with high resolution model ensembles in good agreement
these showers will spread northeastward across most of central IL
this evening, with a few embedded thunderstorms as a few to
several hundred J/kg CAPE develops over the area. Deep layer shear
appears to be on the weak side for any sever storms, generally
under 30 kts. There appears to be a corridor where fairly
persistent rainfall could result in rainfall totals of an inch or
two overnight, as well as some spotty slow moving thunderstorms
that could produce localized two inch rainfall. This system should
slowly migrate eastward Wednesday morning, with precipitation
dissipating at least for a time. It still appears a frontal
boundary will be stalled out near I-70 Wednesday, with another
couple of shortwaves rotating around an upper level low stalled
out near the Great Lakes, set to affect portions of the region
through Thursday. This could produce some additional showers and
thunderstorms lingering into Thursday, mainly east of I-55. A
strong upper level ridge should build back over the region late
this week into early next week, providing dry conditions.
Temperatures will trend downward for Wednesday as the front
progresses south of the area, with highs mainly mid 70s.
Temperatures will trend back upward over the weekend, with highs
Friday around 80, followed by mid 80s.
37
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers will occur at all sites this evening and should continue
through the night. DEC and CMI could see some thunder so will have
VCTS, PROB30, or TEMPO groups for 1-2hrs for both sites. Then just
showers the rest of the night. Cigs will be VFR to start at all
sites, but then fall to MVFR tonight and tomorrow morning. All
sites except PIA will also see IFR cigs below 1kft late
tonight/early tomorrow morning, either predominately at BMI or as
a TEMPO group at SPI and DEC. Cigs will improve tomorrow to VFR at
PIA, but only higher MVFR at the other sites. Light rain is
expected to continue tomorrow afternoon as well, but will just
have VCSH for now at all sites except PIA. Winds will be light and
variable but then become northeast later tonight and into
tomorrow. Speeds should be 10kts of less at all sites...except
with storms this evening at DEC or possible CMI.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion