Minturn, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

214
FXUS62 KILM 251049
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
649 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Friday
ahead of an approaching cold front. This front should bring good
rain chances Friday afternoon into early next week. A tropical
cyclone could impact the area either directly or indirectly as
early as Monday. At the very least there will likely be
hazardous marine and surf conditions.
&&
.UPDATE...
No major changes coming down the track at the 7 AM EDT update.
Updated 12Z TAF discussion found below.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM EDT, boundary layer winds are locked in on a slight
breeze out of the SSW. Much less fog expected this morning, with
perhaps some patchy fog and low stratus in the Cape Fear region
later this morning heading towards sunrise.
Less than a week until October, and yet, widespread highs in the low-
to-mid 90s expected this afternoon. Florence, SC (KFLO) has a record
of 95F set on this day in 2010. Don`t think that record will be
broken, but it could tie.
Even with diurnal mixing, dewpoints will hang solidly in the low-to-
mid 70s closer to the coast. This will help create more buoyancy and
instability in the afternoon, where the seabreeze could fire off
some isolated storms. Poor mid-level lapse rates keep the activity
short and limited. By this evening, an upper trough approaches from
the west, slowly bringing a surface cold front with it. Some of the
associated forcing and lift starts making its way into the Pee Dee
region and coastal plain, where shower and thunderstorm chances
increase modestly for those areas heading into the overnight hours.
Kinematics and shear aren`t super impressive with this system, so
severe weather is not expected. Lows tonight in the lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Rain Chances: above normal
*Excessive Rainfall Risk: very low
*Severe Storm Risk: very low
*Temps: above normal thru Fri night; near normal Sat; above normal
Sat night
Confidence:
*Moderate to High
Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Expect
unsettled weather as a weak, slow-moving cold front approaches Fri
and then moves into the area Fri night before pushing toward the
coast and/or just offshore Sat/Sat night. Could be enough
shear/instability to yield a severe storm or two Fri and/or Sat.
Also, abundant moisture/training potential/fairly weak storm motions
could lead to heavy rainfall which may produce minor flooding,
although don`t see a significant flash flooding threat given how dry
it`s been lately.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Tropics: Watching a potential tropical cyclone off the SE U.S.
coast early to mid week
*Rain Chances: near to above normal
*Excessive Rainfall Risk: low
*Severe Storm Risk: very low
*Temps: near to below normal highs; above normal lows thru Mon
night, then near normal
Confidence:
*Low
Details: No significant changes to the previous forecast this period
but uncertainty remains greater than normal, especially starting Mon
due to a potential tropical cyclone impacting the area either
directly or indirectly. The model guidance is still struggling to
resolve the interaction with any potential tropical system near The
Bahamas with what is expected to be Major Hurricane Humberto SW of
Bermuda and an upper low over the SE U.S.. Given that the system
hasn`t even become a tropical cyclone yet we suspect forecast
confidence will remain low. It is worth noting that even if any
potential tropical system ends up staying offshore, the moisture
around it combined with upper-level forcing could spread some heavy
rainfall into the region. Thus our excessive rainfall risk may be
higher than we are currently advertising.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly VFR to open the 12Z TAF period, though some IFR low
stratus is lingering around KCRE and KLBT. This should mix out
by 13Z or so.
From there, should see mostly VFR through the end of the period.
SW gradient winds tighten to 10-12 kts, and a few gusts up to
18 kts are possible this afternoon at KCRE and KMYR. Isolated
convection from the seabreeze is also possible early this
afternoon, but confidence is so low that even a PROB30 group
didn`t feel right. Convection chances look a bit better for KFLO
and KLBT after 00Z, and then again after 06Z.
Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms create periodic flight
restrictions Friday and through the weekend. Rain chances back off
slightly by Monday, but restrictions are still possible,
particularly closer to the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...SSW winds at 8-10 kts increase to 10-15 kts late
this afternoon, with gusts up to 19 kts possible. Gradient winds
loosen a bit tonight, while veering more southwesterly. Seas at 1-2
ft increase to 2-3 ft. Besides the wind waves, look for an easterly
swell at 8-10 seconds.
Friday through Monday...High confidence through Sunday night with
fairly benign marine conditions expected as a weak cold front
approaches Fri and then stalls out over or near the area through
the weekend. Conditions will likely go downhill Sunday night and
moreso Monday as high pressure builds to the north and low
pressure likely approaches from the south. However, the extent
of impacts is still highly uncertain given the potential for a
tropical cyclone to either directly or indirectly impact the
area starting as early as Monday. Thus, conditions could become
much worse than currently forecast depending on how this system
evolves and mariners are advised to stay tuned to the latest
forecast for updates.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...RJB/IGB

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion