Millinocket, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

432
FXUS61 KCAR 231340
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
940 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly crosses the state from north to south late
today. High pressure then builds over the region through
Wednesday night, then moves offshore Thursday. A warm front
lifts to the north Thursday night, followed by a cold front
on Friday. High pressure returns on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9:40AM UPDATE...Minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast due to
radar, satellite and obs trends. Low stratus is slowly mixing
out and lifting across the area. Very isolated showers based on
KCBW trends across central zones. A bulk of precipitation
working east from Quebec and Vermont will push into Maine today
but likely shrink in coverage with only isolated to scattered
showers expected. Will continue to monitor trends over the next
several hours. Aviation update below...
Previous Discussion:
The cold front will continue to cross the region today. The
majority of the rainfall from overnight will decrease as the
boundary moves further south. High res models show some rain
showers behind the front with any remaining instability. With
the cloud skies and winds shifting from the NW later in the day,
temps will be in the low 70s. By tonight, the cold front will
move over the waters as high pressure moves in from the north.
This will keep the cold front mainly over the waters for the
night. Some rain showers are possible along the Downeast coast.
For the rest of the region, the increased soil moisture, less
cloud cover, and cool temps will develop patchy fog across the
region. Expect temps in the mid 40s in the north and mid 50s in
the south.For Wednesday, high pressure will settle in, pushing
clouds out of the area and decreasing ENE winds. Temps will
reach into the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Clear skies may linger across the north Wednesday night prior to
incoming high level cloud cover ahead of the next system. Under
mostly clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling may
allow for temperatures to drop below 40 north of the I-95
corridor. This will once again pose a threat for frost.
Southerly warm air advection into the day on Thursday will help
with temperatures rebounding into the upper 60s across the
forecast area.
A low pressure system will approach the area from the west on
Thursday and should cross the forecast area Thursday night into
Friday morning. What is consistent across various model runs is
that this low pressure system will begin to occlude as it
crosses the area. That said, there remains some uncertainty in
the track of this low, as the recent 00z run of the GFS
continues to pull the low north of the state, while the ECMWF
and CMC maintain the low through the Central Highlands. This
variation in low track will have most significance to where the
deformation zone will set up, and thus where the most meaningful
rainfall will take place. Based on current model trends, it is
most likely that this zone will set up across the Downeast
region, though there remains a fair amount of spread across
guidance for how much will fall. The ECMWF is the most extreme
with the potency of the deformation zone, and this bias can be
seen in the NBM blend. The current forecast is lower than the
NBM had for QPF Thursday night due to uncertainty in any extreme
rainfall, but a total of one half of an inch across interior
Downeast to potentially up to an inch along the immediate coast
is possible at this point. The north will likely see much less
rainfall, unless the GFS solution wins out, and might only see a
quarter of an inch of rain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As the low pressure system continues to move eastward and exit
the area on Friday, rain will quickly taper off, replaced by an
incoming narrow ridge of high pressure. Friday itself will be a
touch warmer, with highs lifting into the 70s. Though the
weekend may cool off slightly, temperatures will remain slightly
above average for this time of the year, with highs in the mid
60s in the north and lower 70s Downeast. Lows will also be a
touch warmer than average, falling into the mid 40s in the north
and lower 50s Downeast. Behind the narrow ridge of high
pressure, a quick moving shortwave may clip the forecast area
Sunday into Monday, bringing another cold front through.
However, guidance at this time suggests that forcing may be weak
with this feature, and it may be mostly dry with only a few
showers if any.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 1340z UPDATE...Most low cigs are going FEW-SCT and
expecting the continued trend to VFR. Expecting VCSH/-SHRA today
at some sites with light winds.
Previous Discussion...
MVFR/IFR conditions with possible LIFR cig/vsby in rain showers
and/or patchy fog this morning. Conditions will quickly improve
to VFR by late morning at Downeast terminals, while at northern
terminals conditions will improve to VFR by this afternoon. VFR
for all terminals tonight and Wednesday, though patchy fog
could approach any terminal, leading to a slight chance for a
return to MVFR/IFR vis late tonight. Winds light and variable.
SHORT TERM:
Wed Night: VFR early, but patchy fog late with widely variable
conditions where fog occurs. Light winds.
Thurs - Thurs night: VFR early, becoming MVFR/IFR from west to
east with rain and low clouds by Thurs night. S wind 5-10 kts,
gradually shifting SW through the night.
Fri: VFR most likely, with a chance of lingering MVFR early. W
wind 5-10 kts.
Fri night - Sat: Mainly VFR. W wind around 5 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for
today, tonight, and Wednesday. Seas may approach 4-5 ft in the
far outer waters today and Wednesday morning. However, the
timing is very brief, thus a SCA will not be issued with this
update.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will most likely remain below small
craft advisory levels through the end of the week and into the
weekend, as seas top out at 3 to 4 ft and winds stay below 15
kts.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...LaFlash/Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...LaFlash/Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...LaFlash/Sinko/AStrauser

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion