Middleburg, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

960
FXUS62 KRAH 091821
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Northeast will extend southwest into
the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas through much of the work week.
Weak disturbances will travel northeast near and along a lingering
frontal zone near the coast on Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...
* Stratocumulus will continue to invade central NC from the east.
* Some isolated patches of light rain and drizzle is possible after
  midnight across the northern and central Coast Plain.
High pressure centered over the northeast U.S. will continue to
extend southwest into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas through
tonight. A cool airmass is in place across the region with todays
highs ranging between 4 and 10 degrees below average. The cool
airmass will be maintained by a cool and moist low-lelve moist
northeast flow into our region. Visible satellite imagery shows a
large region of strato-cumulus clouds with bases of 2-3kft across
eastern NC an the Coastal Plain that is expanding and pushing west
into the Foothills and the Sandhills this afternoon.
These clouds will continue to push east across most of central NC
this evening although the clouds will be slow to move into the
Yadkin Valley and Triad area this evening. A broad surface low is
beginning to develop off the Carolina Coast this afternoon and as it
organizes it will help drive additional moisture into the region and
back the surface flow to more northerly. There are a few light radar
returns organizing near the Outer Banks and there is some potential
these scattered showers and other developing showers could approach
the northern Coastal Plain after midnight with some patchy light
rain. In addition, as the stratus lowers and thickens overnight,
some areas of mist and drizzle could also develop across northeast
and eastern areas. Low temperatures should be moderated by the
clouds cover and range fro the mid 50s in the Yadkin Valley and
Triad to around 60 in the Triangle to the lower 60s in the Coastal
Plain. -Blaes
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
* Continued below normal temperatures
* Small chance of light rain or even some mist across
  northeastern areas.
North-northeasterly flow will continue into Wednesday with low
pressure offshore, and considering the amount of cloud cover present
over eastern counties today, it is likely the clouds will persist
tomorrow as well. Meanwhile, skies are likely to be partly to mostly
sunny in the Triad. The NAM is the most aggressive model for
precipitation, bringing rain as far southwest as Raleigh. Think that
this is a bit aggressive, but have brought a slight chance of
showers as far southwest as Wake County. With the cloud cover, there
should be a modest gradient in high temperatures - it`s possible an
isolated location in the northeast may not make it to 70 degrees
tomorrow, while the southwest should reach 80 degrees. Lows will
range from the mid 50s to the low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...
* Mainly dry weather with slightly below-normal temperatures
  moderating to near normal.
High pressure will be centered over West Virginia on Thursday
morning, remaining nearly stationary through the end of the week
before dissipating over the weekend. Meanwhile, another wave of
low pressure will form off the Florida coast along the front
that has been off the Atlantic coastline. As the low drifts
northeast, models are hinting that precipitation could make it
far enough west on Saturday afternoon to brush southern Sampson
County with an isolated thunderstorm. This is the only time
period in the extended forecast with a chance of rain. As that
low moves farther offshore, another low will develop over the
Northern Plains and begin to edge to the southeast, but any rain
with this system should remain west of central North Carolina
through Tuesday.
Highs will remain a couple degrees below normal Thursday through
Saturday (mid 70s to low 80s) before rising to near normal values on
Sunday with a brief rise above normal temperatures on Monday.
Similarly, lows will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s through
the period.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Tuesday...
Fair weather with VFR conditions across much of central NC
early this afternoon will give way to increasing moisture and
low cloudiness from the east during the afternoon and
overnight. A band of high clouds will be undercut by invading
MVFR stratus and stratocumulus clouds with CIGS between 2-3kft
that reached the KRWI terminal this past hour. The westward
push is a little uncertain and the timing is tricky but MVFR
stratus is expected to reach the KFAY terminal between 19Z and
22Z and the KRDU terminal between 21Z and 23Z. CIGS will lower
overnight and a period of IFR CIGS is expected at KRWI between
09Z and 15Z with CIGS approaching IFR at KFAY and KRDU around
daybreak Wednesday. It`s unclear how far west the low stratus
will make it but feel confident enough at KGSO that marginal
MVFR CIGS will be in the area overnight. Overcast skies will
persist with CIGS slowly lifting on Wednesday.
North to northeast winds at 6 to 10 kts with gusts of 15 to 20
kts this afternoon will relax tonight with north winds at 5 to
10 kts overnight. North winds at 7 to 10kts are expected on
Wednesday with some gusts to around 16kts across eastern
locations.
Outlook: There is a good chance of MVFR and possibly IFR stratus
impacting eastern locations istrengthens ncluding KRWI and KFAY (and
probably KRDU) at times on Wednesday into Thursday. Fair weather is
expected across western locations including KINT and KGSO. Fair
weather and VFR conditions are largely expected for Friday and
Saturday. -Blaes &&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Blaes

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion