Menominee, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

228
FXUS63 KMQT 220021
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
821 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms expected through Monday.
- Areas of fog tonight and again Monday night; fog could be  dense
at times reducing visibility down to 1/4 mile.
- Seasonable temperatures continue through the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Water vapor imagery shows broad upper level troughing over northern
Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes, with one embedded shortwave
departing NE of Lake Superior and another stronger embedded low over
northern Minnesota. This is maintaining scattered showers across the
UP this afternoon. Have not observed much lightning activity so far
today, but starting to see a bit of an uptick in cells on radar with
a few lightning strikes across northern WI owing to daytime heating
and increased forcing with the approach of the wave from the west.
This activity will spread into Upper Michigan and maintain a chance
of showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Do not expect
strong thunderstorms given relatively modest instability (MUCAPE
~1000 J/kg) and weak shear struggling to reach 20 kt. Will likely
see some fog develop across the area overnight given influx of low
level moisture and light winds, with areas of dense fog with
visibilities below a quarter mile possible in some spots late
tonight into Monday morning.
Monday will bring similar weather to today as the upper low over MN
moves eastward across the UP, bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Much like today, do not not expect any severe weather
as wind shear remains in the 20-25 kt range. Also do not expect
particularly heavy rainfall in any one location, though some showers
may be capable of producing a few bullseyes of 0.5-1.0" given tall,
skinny CAPE profiles and PWAT values of 1-1.25 inches. Otherwise,
should be another relatively warm day of seasonable temps in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Fog could be a concern again on Monday night
as conditions remain conducive to fog formation. Expect less
precipitation on Tuesday, but a few showers and thunderstorms could
linger into Tuesday across the east as the upper level wave departs
the area.
The question heading into the middle of the week will be the impact
of a system to our south as another upper trough moves out of the
Rockies and into the Midwest, setting up shop somewhere between
Lower Michigan and Illinois from Wednesday into the end of the week.
The trend with the 12z guidance has been to keep the bulk of the
precipitation associated with this feature south of our area, which
is reflected in a dry NBM forecast during the latter half of the
work week. Still, will have to keep an eye on the evolution of this
feature and the potential for at least a few stray showers Wednesday
and beyond. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain near seasonal
norms in the upper 60s to low 70s through much of the period. Could
see overnight lows start to dip back into the 40s mid to late week
as clearer skies promote more optimal radiative cooling processes.
Finally, could see precipitation return to the are next weekend as a
low passing well to the north near Hudson Bay swings a front through
the area, but forecast confidence in that scenario remains low at
this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 820 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to drift
across portions of Upper Michigan this evening in association with
an uper level wave. Currently, the only TAF site near airport
minimums is CMX, while IWD and SAW hold at VFR. Nonetheless, low
stratus and low level fog are expected to fill in again at IWD
and SAW as well overnight with lingering moisture in the area.
LIFR or worse are expected to remain confined to SAW and CMX
with IWD hovering near the MVFR/IFR mark. Light winds will be
conducive to fog development.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Generally light SE breezes over the lakes this afternoon will
gradually back easterly through Monday and then NE by Tuesday. Winds
are expected to remain below 20 kt through much of the coming week,
with significant wave heights of 2 ft or less through the period.
Scattered showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will continue
over lake Superior through Monday. Precipitation will aid in patchy
fog development tonight into MOnday, some of which could be locally
dense at times.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...CB

NWS mqt Office Area Forecast Discussion