Melvern, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

059
FXUS63 KTOP 291042
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
542 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is good confidence in the warm and dry weather sticking
  around through Friday.
- A pattern change is expected this weekend with chances for
  precipitation on Saturday and Sunday around 20 percent.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
07Z water vapor imagery showed the upper low over the southwest had
opened up and was moving over the Four Corners region while a more
amplified trough approached the west coast. The upper ridge axis
that was over the central plains yesterday had shifted just east of
the forecast area. Surface obs placed low pressure in the lee of the
central and northern Rockies with a weak surface ridge along the MS
river valley.
The going forecast looks on track and there were not many changes
made. In fact the 12Z ensemble data shows very small spreads in
temps through Friday and none have any QPF. So confidence in the
forecast through Friday is good.
For today and Tuesday, 00Z models continue to show shortwave energy
propagating east over the central plains through Tuesday and
weakening as it shears out. Meanwhile models prog little or no
instability ahead of the wave with lapse rates between 5 and 6 C/km.
There also is little in the way of low level moisture advection
forecast. So chances for destabilization are slim and will keep a
dry forecast for today and Tuesday. Models show 925MB and 850MB
temps cooling. This along with high clouds inhibiting solar
insolation is expected to cool afternoon temps a few degrees today
and a few more for Tuesday.
A low amplitude mid level ridging is forecast to redevelop for
Wednesday through Friday over NM and west TX nosing up into the
middle MO river valley. This is expected to bring full sunshine back
to the forecast area allowing temps to creep back up towards 90 by
Friday.
Operational solutions show an upper trough developing over the inter-
mountain west for this weekend and may bring some precip chances to
the forecast area. But there are differences in the operational runs
and the cluster analysis of the 12Z ensembles show a nearly even
split betweeen the four clusters on Saturday, with half of the
ensemble members suggesting a less amplified pattern. The lower
predictability is also seen in the increasing spreads in temps.
Think the NBM and it`s slight chance POPs for the weekend is a
reasonable forecast until the models begin to converge on a common
solution.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
There may be some shallow ground fog in the river valley. This will
be temporary. Otherwise a lack of low level moisture advection and
limited forcing is expected to keep VFR conditions in place with only
some high clouds.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion