Megargel, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

924
FXUS64 KOUN 212331
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
631 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Thunderstorms remain possible this evening with the highest
   chances across portions south central/southeast Oklahoma.
- Storm chances continue late Monday and Monday night with severe
   storms possible with the severe risk shifting to southeast
   Oklahoma on Tuesday.
- Above-normal temperatures into early this week then cooler with
   below normal temperatures by mid-week on.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across southern
portions of our CWA will be capable of producing large hail &
damaging wind gusts this afternoon into the evening hours. Expecting
the axis of the main shortwave trough to start moving through this
afternoon. Although much of the forcing will be elevated in the
slight risk area where MUCAPE instability is in the lower end
moderate, model forecast soundings suggest areas closer to and south
of the Red River could see more surface-based storms with strong
SBCAPE values up to 3500 J/kg where surface dewpoints may approach
70 degrees with the southerly flow low-level moisture advection.
These storms near the Red River could organize into a few supercells
as fairly strong 0-6 km deep-layer shear expected to increase across
northern Texas and areas near and north of the Red River.  As a
result, could see hail up to golf ball size in the current Slight
Risk area while DCAPE values would support strong to severe wind
gusts. Current timing based on CAMs guidance still around mid-
afternoon diurnal heating time well into the evening hours. Although
severe risk lowers late tonight as instability and deep-layer shear
decrease, a fairly strong southerly low-level jet fires up overnight
which may keep storms organized as the upper wave exits to the east.
Lastly, could see some stratus to light patchy radiational fog
developing near sunrise Monday across northwest Oklahoma with near
calm winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
It will stay dry most of the day Monday becoming hot especially
hottest across our southwest CWA with upper 90s highs and triple
digit heat indices up to 104 degrees.  Actually with lower 70s
dewpoints creeping in most all of southern Oklahoma may also see
those lower triple digit heat index values but staying below
advisory criteria.  Our severe risk returns toward late Monday night
as another upper trough currently over the U.S. Pacific Northwest
starts digging into the Southern Plains with its upper low closing
over the Central Rockies.  Meanwhile another weather system over the
Upper Midwest will push an initial cold front across our area late
Monday night.  With this next approaching system and a surface
boundary coming through late, strong surface-based instability
with increasing 45-50 kt 0-6 km shear will increase the severe
risk across our entire area late with the higher risk across the
northern 2/3rds of our CWA as early as late afternoon through the
overnight hours. Large hail & damaging wind gusts are still the
two primary severe hazards although can`t completely rule out the
potential for a tornado north of I-40 based on the higher shear
and Sig Tor values. Although most models maintain a weak cap,
should it erode due to diurnal heating could see some convection
initiation at the earliest end (6 PM) of the timing.
Tuesday will be post-frontal across all but southeast Oklahoma with
mild to warm temperatures (lower to mid 80s) across most of our
area, although southern Oklahoma into northern Texas will still be
hot but less hotter with lower to mid 90s highs.  Still have
rain/storm POPS in the forecast for Tuesday with the upper low over
the Central High Plains with the highest POP values across the
eastern half of our CWA.  Although most of the storms activity would
be elevated and below severe behind the frontal boundary, there is a
potential for surface-based and stronger/severe storms ahead of the
surface boundary across southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Models continue to come into line with a positively tilted trough by
the middle of next week. This will bring widespread "cooler" near-
normal temperatures. Exact timing of this system remains the
greatest uncertainty, which dictates the timing of the mid-level
front and arrival of the cooler airmass. Ensemble guidance generally
has a cooler airmass moving in around Wednesday and lingering
through next weekend. Precipitation chances drop following the
system with a potential ridge building in its wake.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The thunderstorms over southern Oklahoma and north Texas have
generally shifted south, although one storm persist southwest of
K1F0 and there is at least some potential for a shower or storm to
affect KDUA this evening, although the probability is low enough
that will not include a PROB30 group. Models differ on how much
low-level moisture will remain in place overnight, but there is
enough potential for high humidity and light winds to have the
potential for some MVFR visibilities toward sunrise.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  89  72  85 /  30  10  40  50
Hobart OK         65  94  72  89 /  10   0  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  69  97  75  94 /  20   0  10  30
Gage OK           61  89  63  78 /   0   0  40  20
Ponca City OK     64  86  68  82 /  40  10  60  70
Durant OK         71  93  74  93 /  30  20  20  50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...26

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion