Mc Pherson, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

465
FXUS63 KICT 181727
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1227 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued showers/storms today, gradually exiting to the east
  this evening and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated
  flooding concerns possible. A few strong to marginally severe
  storms possible this afternoon-evening.
- Active pattern continues Friday night through mid to late next
  week with periodic shower/storm chances. A handful of strong
  to severe storms possible Friday night through Monday night.
- Chances are increasing for a decent cool down by Tuesday of
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
PRECIPITATION:
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...A strong shortwave trough moving in from the
west will support off-and-on scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms across the region areawide today, and over
mostly eastern and southeast Kansas this evening and tonight. Strong
forcing in concert with cooling temperatures aloft, steepening lapse
rates, moderate instability and 25-35 kts of deep layer effective
shear may support a handful of strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy
rainfall is likely as well, which could support isolated flooding
concerns. Model consensus supports widespread additional rainfall
amounts of roughly 0.25 to 0.50 inches through tonight, with
additional localized 1-2+ inch amounts possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...While there remains
quite a bit of uncertainty, deterministic consensus continues to
support periodic shower/thunderstorm chances Friday night through
mid to late next week, as various shortwaves progress over the
region within progressive west-northwest flow aloft. The combination
of forecast buoyancy/shear suggests a handful of strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible from Friday night through Monday night,
along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding concerns.
Per deterministic consensus, could even be looking at some steady
stratiform rainfall periodically from Tuesday through Thursday, with
a deep slow-moving upper trough dropping southeast over Mid-America.
Severe weather chances look much lower with this activity. Stay
tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.
TEMPERATURES:
A cool down into mostly the 70s is expected today, due to increased
clouds and precipitation chances and decreased atmospheric thickness.
For Friday through Monday, temperatures should get back closer to
seasonal normals in the 80s, as both thickness and southerly flow
increase across the region.
By Tuesday and persisting through Thursday or Friday, a slow-moving
deep upper trough dropping southeast over Mid-America and an
associated strong cold front should support a decent cool down into
at least the 70s for daytime highs and 50s for overnight lows.
However, the latest GFS and ECMWF supports high temperatures in the
60s with widespread clouds/precipitation. Stay tuned as we continue
to refine forecast details in the coming day.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will continue moving to the
east throughout the afternoon. Could see a bit of development on the
back side of this feature later this afternoon in central KS, so
decided to introduce a TEMPO for -SHRA at SLN at this time.
Light and variable winds are anticipated to commence at all sites
after 00Z. Short-range ensembles indicate solid chances for MVFR
visibilities in central KS around sunrise due to low temp/dew
spread. As such, also decided to introduce a TEMPO group at SLN
around 10-13Z to highlight this. Could see expansion to other sites,
but confidence is too low for more mentions at this time.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion