Mc Bain, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

632
FXUS63 KAPX 181835
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
235 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower/storm chances favoring areas south of M-32. Slight
  thunder potential as well, greatest chances near Saginaw Bay.
- Turning cooler Friday and Saturday with low shower chances at
  times. Better rain chances arrive later in the weekend as
  warmth and humidity return Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Ridging overhead being somewhat
suppressed by a weak/subtle trough making headway just off to our
northeast. Backdoor cold front passed through northern MI from the
north-northeast this morning/midday with ample post-frontal moisture
struggling to release its grip on low clouds across parts of the
forecast area. More plentiful sun the father south one goes with
potential for a few pop up showers/storms this afternoon/early
evening. Otherwise, a return of higher surface pressures and
increasingly dry air gradually returns on Friday.
Forecast Details: Stubborn morning/midday cloud cover across the
northern half of the forecast area as pretty much dissipated
over the last hour or two. Southern areas (primarily south of
M-32) remain favored for continued convective processes this
afternoon/early evening, with the highest chances as you head
near M-55 where MUCAPE is progged as high as 1,000 J/kg. Any
scattered shower/storm development should largely dissipate
after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating.
Some stratus may redevelop tonight, favored across parts of eastern
upper and northeast lower. Lows generally spanning the upper 40s to
upper 50s area-wide.
For Friday, any low clouds tonight likely to be slow to improve on
Friday, but eventually more sunshine expected area-wide with high
temperatures cooler than the last several days for many areas --
ranging from the mid-60s to mid-70s area-wide, a touch cooler near
the Lake Huron shoreline given a prevailing east wind. Low
chances/confidence for a few additional pop up showers/storms during
the afternoon/evening, primarily in downsloping areas of northwest
lower (west of US-131).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Pattern Forecast: High pressure remains centered to our northeast
Friday night through Saturday with a developing system upstream over
the Plains. At least initially, northern MI is sandwiched between
these two with relatively tranquil conditions anticipated. By later
Saturday, a warm front emanating from that upstream system will
introduce shower chances across parts of the forecast area with
better chances for more numerous showers/storms expected to arrive
by later Sunday into Monday.
Additional showery/unsettled weather potential continues into
Tuesday as moisture is slow to depart, and with increasingly colder
air aloft, may combine to kick of some diurnal instability driven
showers. Longer range guidance trends suggest cooler/drier air
builds in beyond this disturbance for the middle part of next week.
Forecast Details: Generally low end chances for scattered showers
and an isolated thunderstorm exist Saturday as a warm front tied to
low pressure upstream begins its approach. This boundary eventually
expected to cross south to north late Saturday night into Sunday
with a warmer and somewhat more muggy day on Sunday. Additional,
more numerous, shower and storm chances late Sunday, Sunday night
into early Monday as more favorable forcing aloft slides across the
western Great Lakes.
Showery conditions may linger at times for the second half of Monday
into Tuesday with a general drying trend anticipated heading toward
the middle of next week. Temperatures remaining on the mild side
through the entirety of the forecast period with daytime highs
largely in the upper 60s to mid-70s and no real sign of a return of
more fall-like temperatures on the horizon.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Expect IFR to LIFR CIGs to continue to lift to MVFR and
eventually, VFR this afternoon and continue into tonight.
Generally north to northwest winds expected today, with a few
isolated showers/ storms, especially south of M-32. Winds become
light/ calm tonight, then turn easterly for Friday with
sustained winds 5-10 knots through the period, with occasional
15 knot gusts. Low CIGs look to return tonight with some patchy
fog possible, especially after midnight into early Friday.
Expecting any lingering low clouds from tonight to lift through
Friday morning leading to VFR by the end of the period.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...NSC

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion