Maxton, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

503
FXUS62 KILM 251759
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
159 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Friday
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should bring good
chances or showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through
Sunday. A tropical cyclone may develop over the Bahamas this
weekend and could bring impacts to the Carolinas as early as
Monday. Increasing winds and rough seas will develop offshore
but inland impacts including heavy rain and wind are still less
certain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Isolated to widely scattered showers
are popping up along the sea breeze this afternoon continuing
through the evening. A cold front will be approaching the
western Carolinas through tonight with shower chances gradually
shifting inland as small disturbances ride along the trough
aloft, clipping us with bursts of PVA. These should be enough to
yield some isolated showers as PWATs remain ~1.8", with best
coverage for our far inland areas. Winds will be borderline for
fog as flow aloft starts to pick up ahead of the trough, so
thoughts are that low clouds and maybe some patchy fog could
start to take over after midnight, less confidence on the fog.
Lows near 70 with highs in the upper 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A 500 mb shortwave centered over northern Alabama Friday night
should slow down and cut off across the southern Appalachians
this weekend as an upper ridge builds across the Great Lakes.
Important models changes in the forecast position of the upper
low mean that the stream of deep Gulf moisture will not be as
quick to exit the Carolina coast Sunday, likely keeping rather
high chances for showers and thunderstorms going through the
entire weekend.
Closer to the surface, a cold front across the interior eastern
Carolinas Friday night should make its way down to the beaches
Saturday morning. Even during the coolest portion of the day,
elevated instability behind the front within a deeply saturated
airmass (precipitable water 2.0 inches is near the 90th
percentile value for late September) should still support
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Convective activity should
become more widespread during the afternoon with 70-80 percent
coverage of rain expected. The front should remain stalled near
the coast Saturday night into Sunday with periods of showers
and a few thunderstorms continuing under mostly cloudy skies.
Severe weather potential should remain low this weekend given
small 0-1 km helicity and only moderate deep layer shear.
Locally heavy rainfall will undoubtedly occur in spots, but
comparing mean 0-6 km wind with Corfidi upshear storm motion
vectors shows there may not be a large potential for slow moving
or backbuilding storm cells.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Data collected by multiple aircraft reconnaissance missions
offshore and 06z supplemental upper air soundings across the
Southeast U.S. last night appears to be paying dividends as
models and their ensembles have increased their potential for a
tropical cyclone strike along the Carolina coastline early next
week.
Tropical Disturbance 94L, still near the Dominican Republic,
will likely develop over the coming days into a tropical storm
over the Bahamas. What happens next is driven in large part by
the position of the upper level low across the southern
Appalachians. While yesterday the feature appeared it would move
north toward West Virginia, the idea now is the low retrogrades
westward or southwestward early next week, creating a
southeasterly deep layer steering flow along the Carolina coast.
If 94L develops and stays far enough west, it could be captured
by the upper low with a Carolina landfall the likely result.
However if 94L remains never strengthens or is slower and stays
farther east, interaction with what should be Hurricane
Humberto near Bermuda could pull the system eastward and well
off the Southeast coast. Confidence in any of these solutions is
still not particularly high, however it would be prudent to
begin reviewing hurricane action plans across the eastern
Carolinas in case we deal with a direct impact early next week.
Outside of tropical troubles, a deep upper trough diving south
across the Canadian Maritimes the middle of next week should
push a cold front southward across the Carolinas Wednesday.
This would bring an end to rain from either 94L or the old
stalled front, with drier Canadian air building southward for
the second half of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Predominant VFR will continue through the first 6hrs of the TAF
period with some uncertainty on restrictions into tonight. For now,
pop up showers are forming along the sea breeze near the SC coastal
terminals, but activity should gradually shift inland with this
feature. Gusty winds will continue through the evening, taking a bit
longer to calm down for coastal terminals. Overnight should see a
slight breeze with increasing flow aloft making it difficult for fog
to form. Low stratus is more likely but the problem is where it will
be as low CIGs (sub-IFR) look to stay far inland where better
overnight rain chances are. Have dragged them into the inland
terminals somewhat in case clouds over perform, as well as adding
MVFR/near IFR to the coastal terminals which may occur closer to
sunrise. Uncertain about when restrictions will clear at this time
but have ~15Z in TAFs.
Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms will create periods
of MVFR to local IFR conditions in ceilings and low visibility Friday
afternoon through Sunday. There is a low but growing potential
that a tropical cyclone may impact the eastern Carolinas Monday
into Monday night with strong wind, low ceilings and low
visibility in heavy rain.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Friday...SW winds ~15 kts with the sea breeze will gradually
decrease to ~10 kts tonight, increasing again Friday afternoon with
another sea breeze. Shower/storm chances will gradually increase
ahead of a cold front throughout the period. Seas generally 2-3
ft.
Friday night through Tuesday...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms
will affect the coastal waters Friday night in the southwest
winds ahead of a cold front advancing in from the west. This
front should move off the coast Saturday morning with variable
wind directions expected Saturday as more areas of showers and
thunderstorms move along the front stalling just offshore. The
front could make it as far as the west wall of the Gulf Stream
Saturday night with light winds and scattered showers continuing
across the coastal waters.
Tropical Disturbance 94L near the Dominican Republic is expected
to organize into a tropical cyclone while crossing the southern
Bahamas Friday or Saturday. Last night`s 00z ECMWF and Canadian
models along with the 06z and 12z runs of the GFS are
mirroring multi-model ensemble trends over the past 24 hours
showing an increasing potential for a tropical cyclone strike
along the Carolina coast early next week. There`s still little
confidence with a precise track or intensity, but marine
interests should begin reviewing plans for dangerous wind and
wave conditions along the Carolina coast late Sunday night into
Monday night.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...TRA/LEW

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion