Marceline, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

437
FXUS63 KEAX 231929
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
229 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and storms persist through the evening. A
  few storms may produce sub-severe wind gusts and locally heavy
  rainfall mainly south of I-70.
- Chance for rain continues into Wednesday. No strong or severe
  storms are expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Closed mid to upper level lows reside over the Great Lakes Region
and the WY/CO border. At the surface, there is a low over OK
dragging a cold front extending through eastern KS, across northern
MO. A H500 shortwave out ahead of the closed low to our west has
provided enough lift for showers and storms this morning. No severe
is expected with these storms given limited instability (MUCAPE
values around 100-500 j/kg), shear bulk shear values around 25-30
kts and increased cloud coverage hindering further destabilization.
However, a few sub-severe wind gusts (20-30 mph) will be possible
through the afternoon as storms collapse mainly for areas east of I-
35. These storms so far have been efficient rain-producers providing
roughly up to an inch to two inches of rain across the CWA. Another
round of heavy rainfall could lead to minimal, isolated flooding,
however flooding concerns still remain low due to the downward trend
of precipitation on the backside of these showers. Hi-res models
(HRRR and NAMNST) suggest a few isolated to scattered showers and
storms linger into tonight before completely dissipating. Concerning
temperatures, do not expect any significant changes from what
temperatures are currently (as of 18Z). Increased cloud coverage
will impede the effects of diurnal heating keeping highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s.
By the predawn hours of Wednesday, the previously mentioned cold
front will have made it through the area reorienting our winds out
of the north. The mid to upper low over the WY/CO border will track
to the southeast approaching our area early Wednesday. This low will
bring additional chances for showers and storms primarily for
eastern KS and western MO Wednesday morning into the early
afternoon. Even though increased flow around the low will lead to
better shear, helping storms to organize, the increased shear and
forcing will not be collocated over our area. Moreover, limited
instability (MUCAPE values up to 300 J/kg) will be also hinder the
severe the potential. As a result, no severe is anticipated for
tomorrow with better chances remaining farther south. Taking a look
at the hydro perspective, a few deterministic models place a
bullseye for heavy rainfall for a few areas south of I-70. As of
now, confidence is very low in any flooding potential for our area
as the front is anticipated to move to the south of the area through
the early morning. In addition, the low-level jet orientation also
remains to the southeast of the area keeping a more favorable
environment for heavy rainfall farther to the southeast. However,
the WPC has issued a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for areas
south of HWY-36 and a slight risk for areas south of a line from
Olathe to Sedalia. Looking at temperatures, increased cloud coverage
and cooler, northerly winds will allow temperatures to remain a few
degrees below normal ranging in the low 70s.
For the second half of this week, the mid to upper level low
continues its track to the east as mid to upper level ridging builds
in quickly behind it. This ridge will be the main weather driver
through early next week, providing us with a stretch of dry weather.
Low-end chances for precipitation return next Tuesday with a
shortwave moving along the western periphery of the mid to upper
level ridge. Higher heights as a result of the mid to upper level
ridge, will allow us to stay in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the
second half of this week into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A few lingering showers still remain from earlier this morning but
are gradually dissipating as they move to the east. Winds will
slowly shift to the north by this evening as a cold front pushes
from north to south through the area. Additional chances for
showers will come during the morning hours, lowering ceilings.
Occasional wind gusts to around 15-18 kts are expected tomorrow
during the late morning into the afternoon.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion