Manvel, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

460
FXUS64 KHGX 271856
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
156 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Use extra caution when using open flames or equipment that can
  cause sparks for the next several days due to very dry air each
  afternoon.
- Dry air, partly cloudy skies, and near to slightly above
  average temperatures will reign through the weekend and deep
  into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A stretch of quiet weather is forecast this weekend and much of
next week. The main weather impact will be an increased risk of
wildfire starts because of how dry the air is. A high pressure
ridge has built over East Texas and will largely remain in place
this weekend and much of next week. Light north to northeast low-
level flow should generally prevail through the entire forecast
period. The only exception to this will be near the coast where
the diurnal seabreeze circulation is expected to start back up
next week.
The main weather impact with this forecast will be low RH each
afternoon. Except for the coastal zones, RH is forecast to fall
between 30-35% each afternoon. A few locations west of the Brazos
River Valley will likely fall into the upper 20s for a few hours
as well. When you combine the dry air with warm temperatures and
sunshine, the threat of fire starts (called fire *danger* by the
Texas A&M Forest Service) will increase. Thankfully, light winds
will keep the fire *threat* (a combination of Fire Danger and
weather conditions to predict the risk of rapidly spreading
wildfires) low. Humidity will start to creep up late in the week
into next weekend when the global guidance hints at slightly
better onshore flow, but please exercise caution if you are using
open flames or equipment that can cause sparks this week.
There is a low (10-15%) chance of a brief shower today over the
coastal waters, but otherwise the forecast is dry until Friday
when some seabreeze activity could kick off further inland. One
nuance to the dry forecast is that a closed mid- and upper-level
low will move across Texas in the middle parts of this week. No
sensible weather is forecast with this system due to very dry air
within the sub-cloud layer, however high-based radar returns (aka
virga) will be possible in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.
Temperatures for the entire forecast period will be near the
seasonal normals (generally +/- a few degrees of 90). Overnight
lows will be pleasant, with a few rural spots in the Piney Woods
and Brazos valley dipping into the upper 50s some mornings.
Bonnette
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Winds this
afternoon generally from the NE, becoming light and variable this
evening and tonight. There could be a period of E or even ESE
winds near the coast late afternoon early evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A brief shower or two may occur this afternoon, but otherwise the
forecast will remain dry. Northeast winds increase tomorrow into
Monday as a broad area of low pressure develops over the central
Gulf. Expect winds around 15 knots with 2-4 foot seas, and if any
stronger winds materialize, small craft will have a need to
exercise caution. Next week, the daily landbreeze/seabreeze
cycle will become dominant as seas also diminish to less than 2
feet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  63  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  67  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  87  75  88 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bonnette
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Bonnette

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion