Manitou, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

419
FXUS63 KBIS 210537
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1237 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy to areas of fog tonight into Sunday morning.
- Temperatures warm back into the 70s and low 80s through the
  weekend, then remain mostly in the 70s next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Quiet conditions persist. In regard to fog, models have backed
off quite a bit overall, which includes unfavorable model
forecast soundings that suggest little near-surface saturation,
and breezy near-surface winds. So while fog may still develop
across parts of southwestern/central ND, it will likely be low-
lying and patchy in nature. The main exception is the northern
James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains, where
soundings are more favorable to areas of fog developing.
UPDATE
Issued at 945 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Conditions remain the same across western and central North
Dakota at the time of this update, with mid level clouds
lingering across the eastern half of state, including the James
River Valley. Overall, the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Quiet weather continues at the time of this early evening
update. Skies remain mostly clear west to cloudy east as mid
level clouds wrap around a upper level low analyzed over
Minnesota. A small band of weak reflectivities is found over
northcentral North Dakota where mid level lapse rates are a
little steep, though dry near surface conditions are expected
to limit any precipitation to virga at this time. Have made some
slight adjustments to the sky grids this evening and have
blended in the latest model guidance into the potential fog
across southern North Dakota tonight, but otherwise the forecast
remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Currently the stacked low that gave North Dakota all the rain
this week, is now sitting over southwestern Wisconsin. The other
low that was mentioned yesterday is sitting over the North
Dakota and Canadian Border. This low however does not translate
to the surface. At the surface, a high pressure sits in that
same spot. At the mid-levels the western CONUS is a weak ridge
the extends to western North Dakota where the backside of that
upper level low sits. Clouds across the state continue to erode
as the surface low moves east away from the Northern Plains, and
the surface high exist in the state.
Tonight, with that surface high, calm winds and clear skis will
lead to another morning of patchy to areas of fog. Sunday will
be the warmest day of the forecast period as a shortwave ridge
will be influencing the state. The far west will likely see
highs in the low 80s. Away from the thermal ridge, in the east,
temperatures will warm into the low 70s.
Monday another low could influence North Dakota as it dives
south from Canada into Montana. The CAMs and the NBM have been
taming down the rain chances however the last 36 hours. The
actual low itself will miss the Dakotas, but far southwest North
Dakota will be in positive vorticity for a few hours, so a few
showers could form. The rest of the week looks to be in a Omega
blocking pattern that slowly moves east. So temperatures will
remain in the 70s without any rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Models have backed off on potential fog development for tonight
into Sunday morning for most of western through central ND. The
exception is the northern James River Valley through the Turtle
Mountains where conditions remain more favorable. Patchy fog
development (likely low-level field fog) is still possible
elsewhere, but confidence in location or timing impacting any
terminals is low. Therefore, used VCFG at KJMS, where confidence
is a bit higher, but left fog mentions out of all other TAFs at
this time. Other than any fog development, VFR ceilings and
visibility are expected through the period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion