Mandan, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

433
FXUS63 KBIS 061707
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of frost throughout North Dakota late tonight into
  early Sunday morning.
- Dry until the middle of next week, then precipitation chances
  return.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
No significant changes other than adjusting sky cover a bit to
account for the CU field this afternoon.
UPDATE
Issued at 854 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
We have expired the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory.
Temperatures dropped into the upper and even mid 20s over a
number of locations in western and central ND early this
morning. For today, look for sunny skies west, but with
partly to mostly cloudy skies central and into eastern ND. Winds
are not expected to be too strong and highs will climb into the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Overall, not too bad of a day. We will see
another cool morning Sunday, but not as cold as this morning.
UPDATE
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Cold temperatures continue over the area, with the coldest
temperatures over western North Dakota where many locations
dipped to or below freezing. So far the coldest reports have
been at NDAWN stations near Tioga and near New Hradec where the
temperature dipped down to 26. Otherwise, some clouds continue
to move through north central North Dakota sliding to the
southeast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Current surface analysis places deep low centered over James
Bay, while high pressure stretches through Saskatchewan into the
western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places low over eastern
Ontario, with cyclonic flow stretching back into the Northern
Plains. Over our area, some clouds continue to slide through
central North Dakota on the back side of the cyclonic flow.
Otherwise, a quiet and chilly night continues, especially over
western North Dakota where lows have dipped into the upper 20s
to lower 30s in many locations, with the coldest readings of 29
degrees so far being reported at NDAWN stations near Amidon and
Tioga.
For today, cyclonic flow aloft may keep a few clouds over
eastern portions of the area, but this will come to an end
later today into this evening as ridge over the western CONUS
starts its gradual push east. Otherwise, a quiet but cool day is
on tap with highs mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s, which
will be about 15 degrees below average. The good part will be
the winds should be quite light with the surface high over the
region.
For tonight, surface high broadens out and spreads east with
very light if any wind expected. This will combine with the
clear skies to produce another cold night with areas of frost.
On Monday into Tuesday, upper ridge pushes east resulting in a
warming trend. Our pattern becomes more active for the middle
and end of the week as an upper low closes off over the Great
Basin region and tries to eject some waves up the back side of
the ridge before it lifts towards the northeast, bringing
precipitation chances to our area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period.
Low VFR CU field over central ND to begin the TAF period with
bases around 5-6kft. This field should dissipate from west to
east through the afternoon. Otherwise mostly clear skies
through the remainder of the TAF period. North to northwest
winds 6-12kts this afternoon over central ND will diminish and
shift east to southeast this evening. Generally light and
variable winds over western ND TAF sites this afternoon,
shifting east to southeast later this afternoon or early
evening.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion