Madison, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

864
FXUS62 KTAE 081451
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1051 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Increased cloud cover through this afternoon as persistent
stratus is moving southwestward through the eastern half of the
CWA. Otherwise, reduced high temps around a degree or two in our
northern sections with cloud cover hanging into the afternoon.
Rain chances still favor south of I10 and southeast Big Bend this
afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A weak cold front is forecast to continue to slowly push
southeastward through the area today before eventually stalling out
offshore. Troughing over the eastern CONUS along with some deep
layer moisture and proximity to the front today will still allow for
some scattered showers and storms across the southeastern half of
the area this afternoon. A few storms could produce gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall before dissipating this evening. Highs today
are forecast in the mid 80s to low 90s with max heat indices only a
few degrees warmer. Lows overnight tonight are forecast in the mid
60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Not much change in the forecast through this weekend vs prior
iterations, persistence is the name of the game. The parent low
pressure system of the cold front that moved across the region on
Sunday, off the east coast of Canada, continues to lift away. The
cold front turned stationary boundary just south of the region over
the central Gulf continues to get nudged southward as surface high
pressure to our north gradually moves southeast. As it does so, PoP
chances will gradually decrease each day as progressively drier air
filters into the region from the north. Unsettled weather is
expected primarily across our Florida counties and offshore until
Wednesday. Mostly clear skies with dew points in the 50s to low 60s
are expected this weekend. It should be a fairly pleasant weekend.
Expect daytime highs to generally in the 80s, a slight warm up on
Thursday and Friday could lead to some spots hitting the low 90s.
Expect overnight lows to generally be in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A swath of IFR to LIFR ceilings is moving southwestwards towards
KVLD and KABY this morning and will likely arrive near or shortly
after 12z. Conditions may be slow to improve, but should become
VFR by the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will be
possible across FL and south central GA later this afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Northeast winds of varying strength will persist throughout the
week, thanks to high pressure anchored to the north and persistent
low pressure east of the Georgia and Carolina coast. Nighttime and
morning surges of wind will occur off the land, with a relative lull
each afternoon. Small craft advisory and/or cautionary conditions
are forecast in the nighttime surges through Tuesday night.
Decreased breezes of moderate to fresh strength are forecast in the
nighttime surges of wind on Wednesday and Thursday nights.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Winds turn more northeasterly early in the week as a cold front
stalls in the northeastern Gulf; some gusty winds are possible,
especially for our Georgia and Alabama districts, as the pressure
gradient tightens. Transport winds will be out of the northeast to
east around 10-15 mph much of the upcoming work week. The proximity
of the stalled front leads to the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and storms each afternoon across our Florida
districts with the best chances across the Southeastern Florida Big
Bend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Little in the way of rainfall is expected through the next week.
There are currently no flooding concerns.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  71  83  70 /  40  20  30  10
Panama City   90  71  87  71 /  30  30  30  20
Dothan        86  68  84  67 /  10   0  10   0
Albany        85  68  83  67 /  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      86  69  81  68 /  30  10  30  10
Cross City    88  72  84  70 /  80  40  70  30
Apalachicola  86  73  83  72 /  50  50  50  30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion