Macon, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

160
FXUS63 KEAX 112335
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Late season heat wave expected late week with high temperatures in
  the 90s F and heat indicies approaching 95-100 F in some
  locations.
* More unsettled pattern returns to the region as early as
  Sunday night with mainly overnight chances of rain through
  Wednesday morning. Temperatures remain above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
A relatively slowly evolving pattern is expected the next several
days with an omega block across the lower 48 leading to upper level
ridging and a warming pattern through at least the first half of the
weekend. Mild temperatures centered across the western high plains
today will shift east tomorrow into Saturday. With the warming
temperatures and increasing pressure gradient, expect lows to be
around 5 degrees warmer tonight than last night. With little change
in moisture, dew point depressions should be wider limiting fog
potential.
15-20 knots aloft is expected to mix down from 925/850hpa towards
the surface on Friday leading to marginally gusty conditions. With
the flow originating in west Texas versus the gulf expect moisture
values to creep up only slightly keeping heat index values just a
degree or two above the actual temperature.  As the ridge near the
surface over the Tennessee Valley weakens and shifts slightly to the
southeast, expect flow to draw a little additional moisture into the
region as temperatures continue to warm.  This will result in
widespread readings in the 90s F Saturday afternoon and heat
indicies approaching the 95-100 F range Saturday afternoon. Best
chance for this occurring will be across central Missouri which is
also supported by the LREF ensemble.
Upper ridge shifts noticeably east late Saturday into Sunday as east
coast trough breaks down and west coast trough shifts east.  Upper
ridge across central US pushes the approaching upper low north, but
northern Missouri could get clipped by chances of rain as early as
Sunday night. Mainly nocturnal chances of rain continue into early
next week as upper ridge continues to break down and spokes of
energy rotate into the region emanating from the upper trough across
the Northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. High clouds will continue to move through the region
overnight. Winds will slow becoming SE through the overnight
before shifting more southerly and accelerating after sunrise
with afternoon gusts around 20-25 knots.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Pesel

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion