Lutts, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS64 KOHX 190522
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1222 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Above normal temperatures continue, especially daytime highs
  which will be mostly upper 80s to lower 90s through the
  weekend.
- Little to no rain through the weekend, better chances for
  scattered rainfall next week with a gradual cool down.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
An upper level ridge will keep the warm and dry pattern going
through the day Friday. It may be the warmest day of this current
warm spell with highs mostly upper 80s and lower 90s, and some mid
90s. It is possible that a few small showers or a brief storm may
cross the Tennessee River and impact areas west of I-65 late day.
Overall it should not amount to much as the weakening wave pushes
into dry and relatively stable air. Lapse rates will be poor and
bulk shear will be minimal but any storms that do form could bring
localized gusty winds.
The weak wave will continue to drift over our area in Saturday as
column moisture levels edge up slightly. Again, a small rain
chance cannot be ruled out, but by far most of us will stay hot
and dry. The overnight hours of the weekend will be calm with just
a few patches of fog.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
For Sunday through Tuesday, the ridge will gradually break down. A
few small disturbances will move east from the Mid Ms Valley with
best dynamics and deepest moisture tracking to our north. We will
see on and off chances for isolated to scattered rain with cooler,
but still warmer than normal temperatures.
Mid to late week, there is greater potential for cooling temps and
greater rainfall coverage, but models are in poor agreement. Some
members keep a zonal upper pattern going with weak disturbances
at times while some models show more significant troughing with
potential for medium to high coverage of rain Wednesday and
Thursday. We shall have to wait and see how models trend on this
changing pattern. WPC qpf currently shows 0.50"-1.50" 7 day
totals. It seem likely temps will trend down with highs in the
mid 70s to mid 80s by the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Mainly VFR conditions with light winds for this TAF cycle. The
only exception should be some MVFR vis at CSV/SRB through
11-12Z/Fri. Isolated storms are expected west of BNA/CKV Friday
afternoon but confidence is not high enough to include attm.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  66  94  67 /  10  10  20  10
Clarksville    95  64  94  65 /  20  20  20  10
Crossville     84  60  84  62 /  10  10  20  20
Columbia       94  63  92  66 /  20  20  20  10
Cookeville     87  63  87  65 /  10  10  20  10
Jamestown      86  62  86  62 /  10  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   92  63  92  65 /  10  10  20  10
Murfreesboro   92  63  92  65 /  10  10  20  10
Waverly        94  64  92  65 /  20  20  20  10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion