Lone Elm, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS63 KEAX 262247
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
547 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and seasonally warm conditions expected over the next 7
  days. High temperatures ranging in the low to mid 80s persist
  through the first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
An omega blocking pattern has set up over the U.S. with stout mid to
upper level ridging extending from TX through MN and two lows on
both on the southern edges of the ridge. At the surface, high
pressure remains dominant which has resulted in mostly clear skies
(with the exception of some fair weather cu fields developing south
of I-70) and calm winds. Expect todays high temperatures to be a
few degrees warmer than yesterday as the ridge axis continues its
track closer towards our area. Highs today will range in the low 80s
across the area.
Similar to this morning, areas of patchy fog will once again be
possible across the CWA during the predawn hours of tomorrow. Mostly
clear skies will allow temperatures to cool to the crossover
temperature. This, combined with the calm winds will result in fog
formation. A few patches of dense fog will also be possible in low-
lying areas or river valleys.
Going into the weekend, the mid to upper level ridge axis continues
to shift east and winds reorient to the south, resulting in weekend
high temperatures being a few degrees warmer than today. Highs are
expected to hover around the mid 80s for most of the area. During
the early morning hours, expect areas of patchy fog to continue to
develop and burn off quickly with sunrise. For the start of next
week, the low in the southwest U.S. begins to weaken as it shoved
back into the flow by a much stronger mid to upper level trough
along the western Canada/U.S. coast. The low in the southwest U.S.
is expected to stay to the west/northwest of our area as it moves to
the north/northeast, minimally impacting our CWA. By mid-week, the
stronger mid to upper level trough comes ashore over the Pacific
Northwest, helping to amplify the ridge. This will help the ridge
stay dominant over our area. The result will be highs in the low to
mid 80s, a few foggy mornings, and virtually non-existent precip
chances through the middle of next week. The next chance for precip
comes during the second half of next week as one model (GFS) tracks
a shortwave within the circulation of the remnants of a tropical
disturbance through our area. However, there is great uncertainty
concerning the track of this system this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Could
see patchy fog develop in the river valleys overnight, but
should quickly burn off after sunrise. Light south-southwest
winds prevail through the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion