Lily Island, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

704
FXUS64 KHGX 020532
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Dry conditions continue one more day. Continue to use caution
  when working with open flame or equipment that can cause sparks
  and start a fire.
- Rain chances rise on Friday into the weekend when moisture
  deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze
  showers/storms along the coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Forecast is still on track as drier conditions persist for one more
day. Slim to none rain chances still anticipated today with relative
humidity dropping to 29-40 percent during the afternoon hours. These
conditions with the presence of dry vegetation & fuels will bring
another day of enhanced fire weather concerns across the area. Low
wind speeds and gusts are still expected to inhibit the spread of
fires, making for easier containment thus mitigating the fire
weather danger. Still, use caution when working with open flames,
and be mindful of equipment which could create sparks.
Ridging should still build over the Plains on Friday while easterly
flow develops near the surface from a coastal trough over the Gulf.
This will tighten the pressure gradient over the waters, resulting in
a rise in winds and seas. In addition, moisture advection will
strengthen, resulting in a daily risk of showers/storms. Initially
these rain chances will be restricted to more coastal locations
south of I-10, but as this moisture builds next week, we could see
rain chances reach further inland. Still, the best chances for any
showers/storms throughout this period of the forecast will be along
the coast and over the waters. Temperatures will be generally above
normal throughout the forecast period (3-10 degrees or so), with
highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid/lower 90s.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Seabreeze is situated from Sugarland to the I-10 corridor across
the Houston area. Not confident it`ll make it all the way up to
IAH before sunset, but if it does wind directions may temporarily
become a bit more southeasterly there for a few hours than what is
indicated in the 0z TAF package (110 degrees). Regardless, speeds
will quickly diminish after sunset and become more variable in
direction overnight...probably trend n/ne later tonight and in the
morning. Rest of the fcst is one of persistence with VFR
conditions prevailing.  47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Light sea breeze, land breeze driven winds are expected today.
Afterwards, a coastal trough will set up a long easterly fetch with
winds of around 15-20 knots gusting to 25 knots offshore. This will
usher in seas of 4 to 7 feet as well, prompting caution flags on
Friday and Saturday. Small Craft Advisories could be needed during
this period as well. These easterly winds will also enable water
levels to reach somewhere between 3.0-3.7 ft MLLW at high tide.
Around this time, scattered showers and storms will return to the
forecast. Rain chances should then rise over the waters heading
into next week.
03
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston (New), Madison, Colorado, and
Wharton counties.
Dry conditions continue today with afternoon RH values dropping to
29-40% for inland areas. Observed 10 hour fuel moisture across SE
Texas shows many areas below the 25th and 10th percentiles, with
isolated spots in our west/northwestern counties below the 3rd
percentile. These locations will be most prone to wildfires, though
once again low wind speeds and gusts should aid in any
firefighting/containment efforts.
Still, much of SE Texas remains vulnerable to wildfires due to the
dry conditions today. Those preforming land clearing should
exercise caution, ensuring any fires are contained and have
contingency plans should they grow out of control. Individuals
should be mindful of equipment that could create unintended sparks,
(i.e. loose chains) especially in areas with flammable surfaces.
Easterly flow and rising moisture on Friday will lead to improved
rain chances over the weekend.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  68  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  93  72  91  70 /   0   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  77  87  77 /   0  20  40  20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion