Leoti, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

748
FXUS63 KGLD 131654
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1054 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-  A few marginally severe storms are possible this afternoon
   and evening, mainly in eastern CO and extreme western KS
   (along/west of Hwy 27) between 4-10 PM MDT. Quarter size hail
   and wind gusts up to 60 mph appear to be the primary hazards.
   Locally heavy rainfall and nuisance flooding are also
   possible.
- A few severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon, mainly east
  of Highway 83 between 4-8 PM CDT.
- Sunny skies and a warming trend will follow, on Monday.
  Afternoon and evening storms will return to the region on
  Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 500 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Overview: An upper level trough over the Intermountain West
will track eastward across the 4-Corners (this afternoon) and
Rockies (tonight). Shortwave energy at the base of the
aforementioned trough (near the CA-NV-AZ border at 09Z this
morning) will progress eastward across NM this aft-eve.. then
lift northeast into eastern CO and western KS Sunday morning.
20-30 knot southerly flow will prevail in the lower-levels
(surface to 850 mb).. on the eastern periphery of a modest,
baggy lee cyclone in Colorado.
SSW flow aloft (on the eastern periphery of the eastward
advancing upper trough) will foster, and likely maintain, a
considerable amount of upper level cloud cover over the region..
in the form of orographic cirrus and/or convective remnants
(cloud cover emanating from widespread upstream convection in
NM).. limiting insolation and preventing any meaningful
recovery/rejuvenation of an already modified/depleted elevated
mixed layer (6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates), the net effect
of which will significantly hamper diurnal destabilization this
afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest no more than ~250-750
J/kg MLCAPE this aft-eve. With substantive upper forcing
(shortwave energy at the base of the upper trough) unlikely to
arrive until early Sunday morning, the majority of convective
development in/near the Goodland CWA this afternoon will likely
be tied to low-level forcing, the most pronounced of which (i.e.
low-level convergence in vicinity of the lee cyclone) will
reside in eastern Colorado.. where S-SSW steering flow (mean
wind from ~190-210 deg) will [1] significantly limit eastward
progression and [2] promote a considerable amount of updraft
interference. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via
current/recent runs of the HRRR appear to support this line of
reasoning. The 06Z NAM NEST indicates little (if any)
convective development in eastern CO this aft-eve.. and is
therefore less supportive in that respect. While environmental
conditions are not particularly conducive for severe weather, an
isolated severe storm /transient supercell/ capable of
producing marginal hail/wind is possible, most likely in
northeast Colorado (Yuma County) ~22-02 UTC.. where and when
low-level forcing appears to be most appreciable.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Sunday remains forecast for some showers and storms to move
through during the morning as the upper trough axis finishes
swinging through the area. With the system swinging through and
the area transitioning more to the backside of the surface low,
some colder air should be able to move in and help keep
temperatures more in the 70s and 80s. We will need to watch for
another chance for severe storms later in the afternoon as the
surface low may remain wrapped on itself in the Plains and keep
a frontal boundary over the area. If this happens, storms are
forecast to fire up in an environment that would support severe
weather. Currently, locales along and east of Highway 83 are
favored.
The early part of the week is forecast to be a continuation of
what we have seen recently with an upper trough moving into the
Western United States. With the trough upstream, some higher
level moisture should provide some cloud cover and small chance
for rain. Temperatures should also warm again into the 80s and
90s.
Late Tuesday and into Wednesday, the upper trough is forecast
to move more over the Plains and allow a cold front to move
through the area. On top of a more organized chance for rain
late Tuesday, the front will allow for cooler temperatures
likely in the 70s for Wed- Thu.
Friday and into the weekend, the area may go into either split
flow or ridging from the west. This should allow temperatures to
be near to above average again with low chances for storms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1049 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Storms are expected to move across the region this afternoon
through tomorrow morning. We could see IFR conditions at both
KGLD and KMCK as stronger storms pass over, or around sunrise as
fog and/or low ceilings move in. We expect fairly widespread
rain with stronger storms embedded moving from the south-
southwest to the north-northeast. We are expecting some 20-30
kts gusts this afternoon before the storms start firing.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion