Lenexa, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

016
FXUS63 KEAX 080812
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
312 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain late today/tonight into Tuesday morning.
- Well above normal temperatures for the latter half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
IR and nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows ACCAS
developing across central KS and NE. Recent regional radar imagery
confirms some showers and thunderstorms developing in north-central
KS and south-central NE. This is developing in an area of strong
isentropic ascent, evident at the 305 K and 310 K levels, in
conjunction with modest moisture transport associated with the low-
level jet. This is all ahead of a shortwave trough moving into
eastern CO based on water vapor imagery. This area of showers and
storms will track eastward this morning and through the day.
However, the 08/00Z TOP sounding shows significant dry air to
overcome. Given this, and the diurnal weakening of the low-level
jet, it seems unlikely our northwestern zones will see any
precipitation this morning. This evening and tonight, as the
low-level jet begins to strengthen again, increasing moisture
transport into NE KS and NW MO, and as isentropic ascent
increases, showers and a few storms will increase in coverage.
CAPE continues to look limited with only a few hundred J/kg
noted. So it seems more likely that we`ll see more showers/rain
rather than storms. Ensemble guidance shows 40-50% probability
for at least .25" for the 24-hour period ending at 18Z Tuesday
in far NW MO. This drops to a 30-40% probability for 0.5" for
the same time frame. Overall, NW MO should see between
0.25"-0.5", with lesser amounts further east and potentially
little or no rainfall east of I-35.
A strong upper ridge will build eastward into the middle of the
country by Wednesday, starting a trend for above normal temperatures
that will likely persist through the weekend. By Friday and
Saturday, the ridge axis looks to be centered right over the
region and with southwesterly low-level flow, we should see
highs climb into the middle 90s Friday and Saturday. The ridge
may get pushed east as a trough encroaches on it late in the
forecast. That may help temperatures fall back into the 80s
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conds will prevail with sct-bkn high clouds thru the pd.
Winds will be out of the SE btn 5-10kts thru 13Z-14Z when winds
will veer to the south and increase to around 10kts. Aft 16Z-17Z
winds will incr out of the south to 10-15kts with gusts to
20-25kts and will diminish aft 22Z-23Z to 5-10kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion