Leisure, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

780
FXUS63 KIND 151729
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
129 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and very warm to hot conditions are anticipated for
  much of the work week
- Drying fuels and low RH values each afternoon today through Friday
  may lead to elevated fire threat, but light winds should limit
  overall concerns
- Next chance of rain and nearer to normal temperatures arrives this
  weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Quiet weather will continue throughout the short term period.
The few to scattered cumulus across the area this afternoon,
especially south, will dissipate with loss of heating early this
evening.
An upper ridge and surface high pressure will be the main influences
through Tuesday, but some clouds from an upper level low southeast
of the area will drift into central Indiana tonight and Tuesday.
This will allow skies to become partly cloudy across most areas by
Tuesday afternoon. The thickest clouds will be in the far
east/southeast, closer to the system.
Blended guidance looks a bit warm tonight with mostly clear skies
and light winds expected. Will trim some. With the high clouds on
Tuesday, temperatures may be a bit cooler, especially east. Readings
will still be well above normal though.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
The modified Omega blocking pattern now looks to persist through the
work week, which is not unexpected as models often break down these
patterns too fast.
The ridging across central Indiana will provide very warm to hot
temperatures along with dry conditions through at least Thursday.
Blended guidance brings in PoPs as early as during the day Friday,
but given recent trends feel that this likely overdone.
The warm and dry conditions will allow the ground to continue to
dry, maintaining or increasing the elevated fire weather threat.
Fortunately, winds will remain below critical fire weather
thresholds.
As the blocking pattern breaks down, an upper level trough will
gradually work into the area for the weekend into early next week.
Surface low pressure will also move into the vicinity. These will
bring rain chances to the area as well as cooler (but still above
normal) temperatures.
Moisture availability and specific timing of better forcing remains
uncertain, so will keep PoPs in the chance category.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1256 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Few to scattered cumulus will be around this afternoon and possibly
Tuesday. Otherwise some high and possibly mid cloud may move in
tonight. Can`t rule out some fog at all but KIND near sunrise, but
confidence is not high enough to include at this time.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion