Leeds, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

154
FXUS61 KGYX 251024
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
624 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will push through the area bringing more
widespread beneficial rain with some areas receiving the first
substantial wetting rains in a month. High pressure builds back
into the area by Friday lasting straight into next week with
pleasant weather expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
625 AM Update...Just minor updates to PoP and temperatures to
align the near term with with observations. The initial push of
light showers is moving through New Hampshire and into southern
Maine at this hour, with fog and drizzle elsewhere. Still
expecting the more robust activity later as the low pressure
center moves in.
Previous Discussion...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Widespread soaking showers and a few thunderstorms look to
  bring 1"+ of rainfall to the area through today.
* Rain may be briefly heavy at times, but flooding is not
  expected.
Showers continue to march northeastward at the time of this
writing as a warm front slowly pushes north from southern New
England. The bulk of the showers will arrive in southwestern New
Hampshire closer to daybreak, spreading northeastward through
the day. A trough swinging out of the Great Lakes Region keeps
southwesterly flow streaming moisture into the region on a 50
knot jet streak. This drives PWATs up into the 1.50 inch to near
2 inch range during the afternoon. The forcing for ascent in
the left exit region of the jet will also help to enhance
rainfall rates during this time. As more of the area moves into
the warm sector elevated instability may be enough to touch off
some thunderstorms. All this being said totals by nightfall
south of the mountains and into southwestern Maine should be
pushing over 1 inch with locally higher amounts near 1.5 inches
where showers and storms train. It should go without saying, due
to antecedent drought conditions, but flooding is not expected
other than maybe some nuisance ponding on roads and low lying
areas. In fact flash flood guidance is upwards of 4-5 inches in
some of the hardest drought stricken areas and USGS data shows
many of the rivers in Maine and New Hampshire are in the 10th
percentile or lower for current streamflows. The cloudy, rainy
day will limit high temperatures to the 60s across the area,
with locations near the coast and in southern New Hampshire
around 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Soaking showers continue through the first part of tonight
  which will bring totals to around 1.25 inches, with locally
  higher amounts near 2 inches possible where showers/storms
  train.
* Rain may be briefly heavy at times, but flooding is not
  expected.
Tonight: Low pressure continues to push through with showers
continuing to push northeastward through the first part of
tonight. Showers look to begin to taper off, becoming more
scattered, after 2 AM as low pressure departs to the northeast.
A final gasp of less widespread showers move through ahead of
the cold frontal boundary in the early morning hours and toward
daybreak. With the event coming to an end at this point, final
totals for locations south of the mountains are expected to be
in the range of 1.25 to 1.75 inches. Locally higher amounts near
2 inches where showers and storms train are possible. In fact,
with PWATs as high as they will be, if an area receives a number
of heavy showers and storms through the event, it would not be
out of the realm of possibility to see isolated amounts near 3
inches. With a fresh rainfall, would expect some patchy fog to
develop in the early morning hours, toward daybreak, as rain
tapers off and skies begin to slowly clear. Low temperatures
get limited to the mid- to upper 50s across the area, with some
of the usually warmer spots holding around 60F.
Friday: The last of the showers exit the area early Friday
morning with broad troughing developing over the region. The
northwesterly flow along with a crossing shortwave may sustain
some showers in the mountains during the day Friday, but
otherwise it acts to advect drier air into the region resulting
in a dry day for the majority of the area. Clearing skies allow
for efficient warming, resulting in high temperatures reaching
the upper 70s to around 80F south of the mountains. To the north
where clouds hold on longer, temperatures top out in the low to
mid-70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Early morning long term update...The 01z NBM has been
incorporated into the going forecast. The message hasn`t changed
- dry and warm weather continue to be expected. Above normal
temperatures are expected through Monday before cool Canadian
high pressure builds in around Tuesday with a cooler air mass
expected and continued dry.
Previously...
Skies remain mostly clear on Saturday and in most places on
Sunday, though a few showers might be possible in southern NH as
a weak low moves across southern New England. Temperatures
through the extended weekend look to be in the upper 70s.
By the start of next week, the usual dry pattern that has been
experienced for most of this month returns. Next week looks to
start on the warmer side, with temperatures getting cooler
through the week. Temperatures on Monday look to be in the upper
70s most places, with 60s expected in the 2nd half of the week.
Strong high pressure looks to remain over the northeastern US
through much of next week, with almost no possibility of
precipitation for most in New Hampshire and Maine. The prolonged
dry weather may worsen the severe to extreme drought currently
seen over much of NH and Maine.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Showers overspread the region this morning with IFR
and MVFR ceilings lasting through the day. A few thunderstorms
are possible in the afternoon. Low level wind shear is expected
at PWM and RKD during the late afternoon and early night hours.
Fog is likely tonight after the fresh rainfall. Skies clear
Friday with improvement back to VFR.
Long Term...VFR is expected through the remainder of the
forecast, though some light rain might lower CIGs a little at
MHT, CON or PSM.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas will build to around 5 feet today with wind
gusts also increasing to 25 to 30 knots as a front crosses the
waters tonight. Wind gusts will decrease overnight tonight, but
seas will remain around 5 feet into the early afternoon Friday.
Winds start easterly today, but swing around to southwesterly
behind the front Friday.
Long Term...Southwesterly winds will diminish Friday night,
becoming light and variable. Variable winds should continue
through the end of the day Saturday, as a more defined light
southerly wind Saturday night. On Sunday, winds shift to
southwesterlies and strengthen to 8-12kts, then shifting to
northwesterlies by Monday morning as a low to the south of the
Gulf of Maine moves eastward. Seas of around 2-4ft are expected
through Tuesday morning.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ151.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Ekster/Palmer

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion