Ledoux, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

802
FXUS65 KABQ 060307 AAB
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
907 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 905 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through Saturday evening. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to
  flooding in areas of poor drainage, urban arroyos, and around
  wildfire burn scars. A few storms may become strong with high
  winds, hail, and frequent lightning strikes.
- A warming and drying trend will occur Sunday through Tuesday
  with isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible.
  Active weather may return Wednesday and Thursday with greater
  coverage of showers and storms with heavy rainfall.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Cancelled the Flash Flood Watches for the remainder of tonight.
Light to moderate rain is likely over the recent burn scars along
the central mountain chain, but rain rates are expected to remain
low enough to prevent flash flooding. Minor flooding is likely in
flood-prone locations.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Updated forecast to include isolated thunderstorms in the Chuska
Mountains and Gallup area this evening in accordance with radar
and high resolution model trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Nearly all the ingredients are in place for impactful weather to
continue over the region thru Saturday. The main limiting factor is
the degree of heating and instability given uncertainty with cloud
cover today and possibly Saturday. Nonetheless, a weak upper level
shortwave trough is moving southeast around the Four Corners today
while a 65kt speed max analyzed on GOES derived motion winds moves
east thru southeast AZ. The 18Z PWAT at KABQ was 0.94" (near 90th
percentile) with a couple weak capping inversions and a convective
temp of only 75F. A strong backdoor cold front sliding southwest
thru eastern NM will help to trigger additional showers and storms
along the central mt chain and the RGV thru tonight as lift beneath
the upper jet passes thru central and southern NM. There is also
potential for a few of the storms within central NM between Santa
Fe, ABQ, Las Vegas, Santa Rosa, Corona, and Socorro to become strong
this evening with heavy rainfall, hail, strong winds, and frequent
lightning strikes. Confidence on the flash flood potential remains
highest over HPCC given the 13Z NBM 90th percentile bullseyes peak
near 2" in that area. A Flash Flood Warning or two cannot be ruled
out in the aforementioned area of strong storms based on the 12Z
HREF 6-hr max QPF values >3". The majority of model solutions also
keep activity going well into the night within central NM as forcing
from the upper jet remains in place over southern NM and low level
convergence continues along the central mt chain. Widespread low
stratus and some patchy fog may also spread to more of eastern NM
late tonight.
The overall pattern remains mostly unchanged Saturday. Partial
clearing is anticipated over more of central and western NM with
warmer max temps. Eastern NM may see delayed convective initiation
given the more widespread cloud cover. Upper level forcing will be a
tad weaker but the better heating may help with instability along
and west of the central mt chain. Guidance remains consistent
with rainfall rates peaking over the region Saturday and another
Flood Watch was added for HPCC and the Ruidoso area burn scars.
Any activity that develops Saturday afternoon will move to the
east/southeast with a couple strong storms possible again.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Forecast confidence is still low to moderate on Sunday as guidance
continues to waffle around with convective coverage. Moisture will
remain above normal across the region while a shortwave ridge starts
to strengthen over northwest MX and southern AZ. A subtle 35kt speed
max moving across northeast NM will interact with moist southeast
flow across eastern NM. The 12Z NAM has SBCAPE values >2000 J/kg
over eastern NM with bulk shear near 30kt and strongly veering
wind profiles. The greatest uncertainty has been how far west
convective initiation will occur. If trends suggest another crop
of storms developing farther west to the central mt chain then
Flood Watches may be needed for burn scar areas. Otherwise, the
main threat for storms with heavy rainfall will be over eastern
NM.
Monday and Tuesday are still expected to be the quieter days as the
upper level shortwave ridge builds eastward while an unseasonably
strong H5 trough deepens along the west coast. Isolated storms
are still possible as moisture recycles around the high terrain
with much warmer temps. Extended guidance is still advertising an
uptick in storm chances Wednesday and Thursday as the upper level
trough begins to kick out across the central Rockies. There is
still a lot of uncertainty with the timing and location of the
trough. Confidence is higher than temps will trend cooler with
stronger breezes as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will progress
toward the east and southeast this evening, continue over the
south central mountains, east central plains, and southeast plains
after midnight, then linger along NM`s eastern border into the
early morning hours Saturday. In addition, widespread MVFR and
IFR conditions mainly in low clouds, but also with areas of fog,
are expected east of the central mountain chain tonight until late
morning or early afternoon on Saturday. Another round of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will progress
eastward across the forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening.
A few of the stronger cells this evening, and again on Saturday,
will be capable of producing wet microbursts with localized,
brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
An active pattern will continue thru Saturday with numerous showers
and storms producing locally heavy rainfall. The greatest potential
for heavy rainfall will focus along the central mt chain where burn
scar flash flooding is possible. Flood Watches are in effect today
and Saturday. Total rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.50" are
likely east of the Continental Divide with localized amounts >2".
Some areas around the Four Corners and far eastern NM may struggle
to pick up 0.10". A warmer and drier pattern will return Sunday thru
Tuesday with isolated storms and light winds. A more active pattern
may return Wednesday and Thursday as a strong upper level trough
approaches from the northwest. Greater storm coverage may occur
with cooler temps and stronger breezes.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  82  57  85 /  20  50  10   0
Dulce...........................  45  77  43  81 /  50  80  30  10
Cuba............................  49  75  49  79 /  60  80  20   5
Gallup..........................  51  78  50  82 /  20  50  10   0
El Morro........................  50  75  49  79 /  40  80  30   5
Grants..........................  51  77  50  82 /  50  80  30   5
Quemado.........................  52  76  51  80 /  30  60  20   5
Magdalena.......................  54  74  55  81 /  50  80  30  10
Datil...........................  50  73  49  79 /  40  80  30  10
Reserve.........................  52  81  51  85 /  50  60  20  10
Glenwood........................  56  83  55  89 /  50  60  20  10
Chama...........................  43  70  42  76 /  60  80  40  20
Los Alamos......................  51  71  52  77 /  70  70  30  10
Pecos...........................  49  72  49  78 /  80  70  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  46  70  46  75 /  80  70  40  10
Red River.......................  39  62  39  66 /  80  60  40  20
Angel Fire......................  37  66  36  71 /  80  70  30  20
Taos............................  47  73  46  79 /  80  60  30  10
Mora............................  44  67  45  74 /  70  70  30  20
Espanola........................  53  78  52  84 /  70  70  30   5
Santa Fe........................  52  73  52  78 /  70  70  40   5
Santa Fe Airport................  53  76  52  82 /  70  70  40   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  79  60  85 /  60  70  40   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  81  59  86 /  60  70  30   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  83  59  88 /  50  70  30   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  81  59  87 /  60  70  30   0
Belen...........................  59  83  57  88 /  50  70  30   0
Bernalillo......................  58  82  58  88 /  70  70  30   0
Bosque Farms....................  58  82  57  88 /  50  70  30   0
Corrales........................  59  82  59  88 /  60  70  30   0
Los Lunas.......................  59  82  58  88 /  50  70  30   0
Placitas........................  55  78  56  83 /  70  70  40   0
Rio Rancho......................  59  81  58  87 /  60  70  30   0
Socorro.........................  60  83  59  89 /  50  70  30   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  72  52  79 /  60  70  40   5
Tijeras.........................  53  75  53  83 /  60  70  40   5
Edgewood........................  51  76  50  83 /  60  70  40   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  77  49  83 /  60  70  40   5
Clines Corners..................  50  70  51  77 /  60  70  40   5
Mountainair.....................  52  74  52  81 /  50  80  40   5
Gran Quivira....................  52  74  52  81 /  60  70  40   5
Carrizozo.......................  55  76  56  83 /  50  70  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  50  69  52  75 /  30  80  30  30
Capulin.........................  46  71  49  74 /  60  20  20  10
Raton...........................  48  73  49  78 /  70  30  20  10
Springer........................  49  74  50  80 /  70  40  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  48  70  49  77 /  70  60  40  10
Clayton.........................  50  74  55  79 /  30  10  10  10
Roy.............................  49  71  52  78 /  50  30  30  10
Conchas.........................  55  78  58  85 /  40  30  40  10
Santa Rosa......................  53  76  56  84 /  40  50  50  10
Tucumcari.......................  53  76  57  83 /  30  20  40  10
Clovis..........................  56  78  59  84 /  30  20  40  20
Portales........................  56  79  59  85 /  30  20  40  20
Fort Sumner.....................  57  79  60  86 /  30  30  50  10
Roswell.........................  61  81  62  88 /  20  40  40  10
Picacho.........................  55  77  56  84 /  30  60  30  20
Elk.............................  52  74  53  80 /  20  70  30  20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
NMZ214-215-226-229.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...44

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion