Leakey Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

685
FXUS64 KEWX 070606
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
106 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons 15%-25% chance for showers.
- Temperatures more like the first week of September than the
  first week of October.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
An upper level ridge extends from a high off the east coast to TX
tonight with west-southwesterly flow at 500mb. Surface high
pressure to the east is producing light southeasterly winds across
our CWA. The airmass has moistened over the last 24 hours and
dewpoints range from the upper 50s to the upper 60s. Temperatures
are still warm in the 70s and 80s. There is a cold front moving
down through the Texas Panhandle tonight. Today the low level flow
will become better established from the southeast and bring
moister air into the region. The weak frontal boundary will move
through Central Texas during the day reaching the northern part of
our CWA by this evening. This combination of factors will mean
15% to 25% chance for showers or thunderstorms over the Hill
Country and Southern Edwards Plateau. The forcing with this
boundary looks pretty weak and most places will not see any rain.
Temperatures over the Coastal Plains may be a couple of degrees
warmer with the southeasterly flow, and the approaching front from
the north may keep highs a couple of degrees cooler across the
northern counties. The front will stall tonight and dissipate
overnight and early Wednesday. As this happens moist air will
surge up the Rio Grande. Daytime heating may produce enough lift
to generate showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Rio
Grande during the day Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
By Thursday the frontal boundary will have dissipated and the
upper ridge will regain dominance over Texas. Dry weather will
return for the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures
will continue to be above normal. Highs will remain in the upper
80s and lower 90s through the end of the period. Some drier air
will move in late week and allow for cooler mornings Friday
through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
VFR flight conditions will start off the period with the latest
satellite imagery showing pockets of some mid and high level
clouds across the region. Low clouds start to establish during
late overnight into this morning for locations primarily to the
east of I-35 and along/south of US highway 90. The latest REFS
probabilities show 30 to 60 percent chance of MVFR conditions
during a point this morning at SAT/SSF/DRT. These sites will
include a TEMPO for MVFR for a portion of the morning. AUS will
remain VFR through the period as probabilities are lower over
this site. This afternoon will also feature isolated to widely
scattered showers in the region. However, confidence is too low
to add into the TAFs for now. Expect for mainly VFR conditions
to continue into and through early Wednesday morning. Expect
light winds from the east to northeast at 10 mph or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  71  92  70 /  20  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  70  92  69 /  20  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  69  92  68 /  20  20  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            89  68  87  67 /  20  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           92  73  91  73 /  20  20  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        91  70  91  68 /  10  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             92  70  92  69 /  20  20  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  69  93  68 /  20  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  70  93  68 /  10  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  72  91  72 /  20  20  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  73  93  73 /  20  20  10   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...62

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion