797 FXUS63 KILX 170950 AFDILXArea Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 450 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and dry weather continues through Friday, with daytime highs topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s.
- A couple upper systems will bring the return of precipitation (20-40% chance) and temperatures cooling slightly starting over the weekend.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Dry and hot conditions continue yet again today and tomorrow. Light, east winds will be in place, which should help mitigate the fire danger. This pattern will hold until a slow moving upper wave starts to break down the ridging as we go into Friday. This upper wave will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the start of the new week. Highs will be around the mid 80s to low 90s through Saturday. We could see some slightly cooler temperatures to start out the new week, with highs in the low to upper 80s beginning Sunday. Lows will stay mainly in the 60s for the next week. The Climate Prediction Center continues to advertise a 60-70% chance for above normal temperatures through the end of September. For reference, normal temperatures by the last day of September should be in the middle 70s.
With these daily chances for rain, the rainfall amounts will not be impressive. Drought has effectively settled in across the forecast area. What that means for central and southeastern IL: harder to get any meaningful rainfall without a potent/impressive low pressure system. There is generally a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms going into next week starting Friday. The greatest probability for widespread showers and/or thunderstorms is on Sunday night with a 30-40% chance. Despite the daily chances for rain, there is only a 20-30% chance of more than an inch of rain from now until 00z next Thursday (7pm Wednesday, 9/24) based off the LREF.
Copple
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.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 450 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions continue through the 12z period with light northeast winds.
Copple
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.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion