Lake Rescue, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

733
FXUS61 KBTV 201741
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
We`ll have another round of frost and freeze conditions tonight into
early Sunday morning. Temperatures will dip into the upper 20s to
mid 30s in most spots, though remaining closer to 40 degrees near
Lake Champlain. Otherwise, the weather will remain dry through the
weekend, with some increased shower chances Monday night and
Tuesday. Any rain will be relatively light with little impact on
drought conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories
remain in place for late tonight into early Sunday morning. Lows in
the upper 20s to mid 30s will be widespread away from Lake
Champlain.
High pressure remains draped across our region this afternoon,
leading to abundant sunshine. Winds remain mostly light as well,
though we are seeing occasional gusts to around 15 mph here and
there. Overall though, it`s been a pleasant early fall day, and this
will continue through the evening hours. Temperatures will fall
sharply after sunset, with the clear skies and light winds lending
to optimal radiational cooling. Lows will be similar if not a little
colder than last night/this morning, especially in south-central and
eastern VT. At the least, patchy frost is expected in most
locations, with a hard freeze likely in the colder spots in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Therefore, the frost/freeze
headlines will remain in place.
Sunday will be another beautiful day, with just passing high clouds
expected. The ridge will push eastward through the day, allowing
south/southwest flow to develop. This will serve to warm
temperatures into the mid/upper 60s to mid 70s, which is close to or
a little above normal. This warmer trend will continue Sunday night,
so don`t anticipate much, if any, frost. Lows will range from the
upper 30s/low 40s in the Northeast Kingdom and along/east of the
Greens to the lower/mid 50s in the Champlain and St Lawrence
Valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...The high will continue to shift eastward
Monday and Monday night, while an upper trough swings into the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. This will keep us under southwest/west-
southwest flow aloft. Moisture will increase out ahead of this
incoming trough, and this will interact with a couple of weak
fronts/troughs during this period. The first will be a weak warm
front which will lift up along/just west of the St Lawrence Valley
Monday. While the best forcing will remain to our north and west, a
few showers may move into areas from the Adirondacks westward Monday
afternoon. South/southwest winds will be somewhat breezy on Monday,
especially in the Champlain Valley due to channeling up the valley.
Clouds will increase through the day as another frontal boundary
starts to approach from the west, but south flow will allow
temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s areawide. Better shower
chances arrive Monday night ahead of the aforementioned frontal
boundary moving eastward through the Great Lakes/Ontario. Forcing
continues to look weak and confined to mainly northern/western
portions of our forecast area. So while we`ll see increased
moisture, would expect any shower activity to remain scattered, at
best, and mainly limited to areas from the northern Champlain
westward through northern NY. Note that the 12z NAM has trended
drier for this time frame, and probabilities for rainfall greater
than 0.10 inch within any 6-hr period Monday/Monday night is only
25-30 percent at best. We`ll need to continue to watch trends
closely going forward, but have gone ahead with low-end likely PoPs
for Monday night, though this is toned down quite a bit from the
NBM. Regardless, any rain we do get will not be widespread and will
be light, with no impact on the drought conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...The extended forecast still features a
messy weather pattern. As noted yesterday, things that have tried
highlighting closed lows digging from the north have tended to trend
towards an open trough, and that is where probabilistic trends have
gone. Because of this, several forecast scenarios depict less
interaction between a lingering shortwave over the Great Lakes while
the leading shortwave from Monday night into Tuesday races off. This
train of events would lead to a slower progression of a closed low
shifting from the Plains towards the Mississippi River Valley, at
which point it could interact with the trailing trough over the
Great Lakes. What this would effectively do is decrease the rain on
Tuesday and pass off better precipitation chances to next weekend.
However, based on a quick glance at the ensemble bricks, there are
plenty of solutions without precipitation over the weekend either.
Picking on the 06z GFS, you can see this type of evolution where
better northward transport of moisture almost skips us due to an ill
timed frontal passage out of the north that would result in low
level divergence that isn`t favorable for precipitation this
weekend. These trends are not our friend for easing drought, and the
probability for beneficial rain has trended down. The probability of
greater than 0.25" on Tuesday has fallen to 30-50%. The probability
for precipitation over the weekend is currently only around 30-40%
as well.
As to the temperature side of things, expect above normal
conditions. As we`re making the transition into fall, our average
temperatures are falling about 2 degrees per week. So by the end of
the extended, average highs are in the mid to upper 60s and average
lows in the 40s, or even the upper 30s in perennial cold spot, SLK.
So above average conditions will mean upper 60s to mid 70s and lows
in the mid 40s to lower 50s. From this perspective, our fall weather
conditions are going to remain very pleasant.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds have been mainly north, northeast, or variably between 4 to 8
knots, and this will continue through about 22z when winds will
trend variable as terrain influences begin competing with larger
scale flow in the process of switching from northerly to southerly.
Mostly clear skies are expected. Crossover temperatures will be very
low tonight, and so KSLK and KMPV are the only locations that will
have a chance to meet it for a brief window before sunrise. The
current forecast will highlight VCFG and FEW001 from about 09z to
13z and will note here that temperatures will likely be below
freezing with any fog. Beyond 13z Sunday, south winds will gradually
ramp up to 5 to 10 knots.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     VTZ002-005-009>011-016>021.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     VTZ003-004-006>008.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ026>029-034-035-087.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ030-031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion