850 FXUS65 KMSO 170643 AFDMSOArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1243 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cool mornings with patchy frost and fog through Friday morning, especially in higher valleys, before giving way to warm, sunny afternoons
- Shower/thunderstorm chances return later this weekend
High pressure will bring an extended dry period for the latter half of the work week. Afternoons will be warm (5-10 degrees above normal) and mornings will be cool under mostly clear skies. Patchy frost formation is likely for higher elevations valleys along the Divide. Additionally, patchy valley fog will exist in the mornings.
Models show a weak disturbance flattening the ridge on Friday allowing for the potential of a few light showers. A stronger disturbance on Sunday looks to bring more widespread shower/thunderstorm coverage, with high temperatures dropping back to seasonable levels and westerly winds picking up.
There is decent agreement (80% of ensemble clusters) on brief ridging (warming/drying) again early next week (Sept 22-23). The pattern looks progressive with another trough over the Pacific Northwest by Sept 24-25th but the details are limited.
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.AVIATION... Mostly clear skies and light winds will create favorable conditions for the formation of patchy fog or localized low stratus this morning. This may lead to a period of MVFR or even brief IFR conditions between 10Z and 14Z today. Otherwise, VFR conditions will occur the next several days under high pressure ridging. Winds will be light under a weak easterly gradient today.
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.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. &&
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NWS MSO Office Area Forecast Discussion