Kirwin, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

491
FXUS63 KGID 010519
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1219 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will increase each day through Friday then a cold
  front will result in highs in the 60s and 70s on Monday.
- Showers and storms may develop tonight into Wednesday morning
  (around a 15% chance) and again Saturday evening (up to a 35%
  chance).
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Did a minor update to increase pops across the local area
towards daybreak. Most of the CAMS are indicating some weak
convection and light shower activity will develop during the
late night/early morning hours...with pretty good areal coverage
across the local area aided by a weak low level jet. Capped the
pops at 40% for the time being and while showers/t-storms will
be around the area...think most locations will likely receive
less than 0.10" of precipitation with this non-severe
convection.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Today through Wednesday night...
An upper level trough is centered off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest and extends eastward towards the northern and central
Plains. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas are out of the south to southeast from around 10 to
20 mph. High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to mid
80s. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to low
60s. Upper lift will remain over the area on Wednesday with showers
possible (15% to 20% chance) across the area mainly during the late
overnight hours into the morning hours. Temperatures on Wednesday
will warm up a little from the previous day with highs mainly in the
low to mid 80s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the mid
50s to mid 60s with south to southeast winds continuing.
Thursday through Friday night...
The portion of the upper trough that was over the area will lift
northward on Thursday with upper ridging building over south central
and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures will
continue warming up on Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 80s
with mostly sunny to sunny skies. Low temperatures Thursday night
will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Upper ridging will remain over
the area on Friday with winds increasing out of the south around 15
to 20 mph during the afternoon. Temperatures on Friday will warm up
to the mid 80s to low 90s which will be the warmest day of the
forecast. Winds Friday night will be gusty out of the south with
temperatures getting down to the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday through Monday...
An upper trough will extend from the West Coast to the Midwest on
Saturday. South central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas will be on the leading edge of the upper trough with an
increase in upper lift moving over the area. A cold front associated
with the upper trough will be moving into the area Saturday into
Sunday. Showers and storms will be possible (15% to 35% chance)
Saturday evening into Saturday night. Temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures Saturday night
will be in the low 50s to mid/upper 60s. The front will continue
moving through the area on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to
low/mid 80s. Low temperatures Sunday night behind the front will be
in the mid 40s to mid 50s. High temperatures on Monday will be in
the mid 60s to mid 70s with a 15% to 20% chance of rain.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions favored through TAF period. Before sunrise,
scattered showers/storms are expected to develop near-around the
TAF sites, moving east across the area through the mid-morning
hours. The timing, location and duration of storms is uncertain,
so kept a PROB30 group but a prevailing group could be added if
confidence increases in a period of steady showers/storms. Can`t
completely rule out a brief drop to MVFR conditions in a storm,
but confidence is too low to include a mention at this time. Storm
chances come to an end by the late morning hours, ending first
at KEAR then KGRI. Skies will gradually clear behind the storms,
becoming clear by the evening hours on Wednesday.
Southerly winds around 10kts are expected overnight, but
increase during the mid-late morning hours on Wednesday.
Sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts around 20kts are expected
during the afternoon hours at KGRI and KEAR. Winds decrease
around sunset, with gusts falling to 10kts during the evening
hours.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion