Kingston, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

501
FXUS63 KDVN 061900
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry conditions continue this weekend. A warm up
  begins Monday with a return to late summer temperatures this
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Although the core of the upper trough has long since departed,
currently spinning its way through northern Quebec, the last in
a series of back side shortwave troughs is rotating around it
through the Upper Midwest this afternoon. This last batch of
cold advection has led to widespread cold air cumulus this
afternoon and another uptick in winds. Although it`s not as
windy as it was yesterday. The surface high associated with this
air mass approaches from the northwest tonight and crosses our
area on Sunday leading to a clear sky and calm winds. That
should allow for another night of good radiational cooling
tonight, with lows dropping into the low 40s or perhaps upper
30s in spots. Sunday will be similarly cool to today, in the 60s
to low 70s. But with the cool surface high overhead it will be
the last cool day.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
In the wake of the large but departing upper trough, ridging
builds in from the west this week. At the surface, high pressure
shifts to the east opening up a southerly flow across the
region. We`ll see the warm up begin on Monday with temperatures
warming some 5-10 degrees compared to Sunday. The warm up
continues more gradually through the rest of the week with 80s
becoming commonplace.
If you were hoping for rain, we don`t have much good news for
you. A brief shortwave trough impinging on the Upper Midwest
Tuesday into Wednesday is our only chance of rainfall this week.
But there`s not enough moisture return ahead of it to produce
more widespread rainfall. At the moment, the best moisture
return associated with the trough remains will be to our west
and north. Ensemble guidance has shifted this axis of greatest
rain chances even a bit further northwest in the latest runs,
and as such the PoP in our forecast area has decreased a bit.
Even if we do get some rain, it will be fairly light considering
the lack of a significant moisture pull. Guidance is also
trending toward the idea that the surface cold front never moves
through our area, so our warm up continues right through the
week. In fact, by the end of the week, NBM probabilities of 90
degrees start to creep into our forecast area on Thursday
through the weekend, peaking at about 20 to 40 percent on
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Northwest winds decrease this evening and remain light through
Sunday. Afternoon cumulus will be widespread today, but will
dissipate this evening. VFR continues.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SEPTEMBER 7:
Dubuque        37 in 1956
Moline         39 in 1956
Cedar Rapids   38 in 1986
Burlington     42 in 1956
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Kimble
AVIATION...Kimble
CLIMATE...NWS

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion